5:19 PM Monday, August 28, 2023
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move southeast across parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin into early this evening, and then we might see a few more showers on Tuesday, but overall, the pattern ahead looks pretty dry possibly all the way into early next week.
We have seen some heavy downpours with the scattered storms this afternoon with radar rainfall estimates on the order of around a half inch to an inch or more on an isolated basis. Unfortunately, much of this rain missed the Duluth area again today, although parts of the city did get a brief shower late this afternoon. Note — Rainfall deficit since June 1st is at -4.50″ below normal at Duluth, and for August alone we’re nearing a deficit of -1.75″ below normal.
Temperatures will be turning cooler on Tuesday behind the system moving through today with highs on Tuesday in the 60s and 70s (warmest around the Brainerd Lakes), but we are looking at a warming trend once again late this week with highs in the 70s and 80s for Thursday and Friday, with mainly 80s this weekend into early next week, and there is even a chance that we could see some 90s in the Northland Sunday and also on Monday (Labor Day)
Note — We do have another chance for patchy frost early Wednesday morning mainly over parts of north central Wisconsin and upper Michigan once again, similar to Sunday morning, and this patchy frost threat is highest well inland from Lake Superior.
HRRRv4 model radar forecast valid from 7 AM Tuesday to 7 PM Tuesday.
A weak system has been moving SE across the Northland today and this system has produced a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as we’ve seen enough lift develop as a trough pushes SE across the area.
Water vapor loop from Monday, August 28, 2023 (loop time ends 4:31 PM CT)
CAPE has increased to around 1000 J/kg in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin this afternoon with the help of the warmer temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s combined with dew points around 60, and the result from this is for the development of some showers and thunderstorms this afternoon which are moving to the east-southeast.
Radar loop from Monday, August 28, 2023 (loop time ends 4:30 PM CT)
No confirmed reports of hail yet with the storms which are passing south/southeast of Duluth late this afternoon, but radar has indicated a few hail tracks (mostly small hail)
Goes-16 sandwich satellite loop from Monday, August 28, 2023 (loop time ends 4:26 PM CT)
As I mentioned above the pattern looks pretty dry possibly through early next week. The totals you see on the map below are mostly from the scattered rains this afternoon/evening.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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