A few showers or thunderstorms possible Wednesday-Thursday; Rain possible at times this weekend into early next week

4:06 PM Monday, September 18, 2023

We do appear to be heading into a wet pattern this weekend and possibly even lingering into early next week this is all thanks to a slow-moving low-pressure system which will be moving east or east-northeast out of the western U.S. later this week, and this system might even become cutoff for a time somewhere across the upper Midwest, but that possibility is uncertain at the moment due to different solutions which the computer models are showing today, but bottom line is that rain chances are increasing this weekend into early next week, and some rain might even start as early as Friday in parts of the Northland, but even before this system gets here, there is a warm front which will be lifting northeast out of southern Minnesota on Wednesday, and this front could produce a few showers or thunderstorms over parts of the Northland in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame.

Here’s a look at the ensemble model forecasts of total precipitation through 7 PM Sunday.


It’s going to be a warm week across much of the region and this warmth started today with widespread 80s over the Dakotas into far western Minnesota, but temperatures are cooler but really just more seasonable farther to the east, especially closer to Lake Superior today.

Note — Highs in the 70s with a few 80s are likely in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Tuesday through Friday with cooler temperatures closer to Lake Superior due to persistent east winds this week.

Temperatures were running +15 to around +25 degrees warmer than average this afternoon over the Northern Plains.


Average temperatures so far this month are running about +2 to +3 degrees warmer than average in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

September 2023 Temperature Anomalies in the Northland thru the 17th.

Hibbing, MN: +3.5 degrees above average
Brainerd, MN: +3.1 degrees above average
Duluth, MN: +2.7 degrees above average
Ashland, WI: +2.2 degrees above average
International Falls, MN: +1.9 degrees above average

Note — 8 days so far this month with a high of at least 70 degrees in Duluth. The average number of days with a high of at least 70 in September is 11 days (most is 20 days set in September 2009)

And we’ve seen 5 days so far this month with a high of at least 80 in Duluth. The average number of days with a high of at least 80 in September is 2 days (most is 10 days set in 1908)

September 2023 has featured warmer than average temperatures across the northern U.S. and also across parts of the southern U.S., while pockets of below average temperatures covered parts of the western U.S. into parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley.

Thanks for reading!


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