6:59 PM Friday, September 22, 2023
Low pressure at the surface and aloft will move slowly east/northeast across the northern Plains this weekend while a frontal boundary remains nearly stationary across the northern half of Minnesota and far northern Wisconsin. Strong lift associated with the low and front will lead to periods of rain in much of the Northland tonight through Sunday with some scattered rains possibly lingering all the way into next Monday and even into next Tuesday.
The potential for multiple rounds of rain this weekend does increase the risk for a few instances of flash flooding over parts of northeast and east central Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin.
It also looks pretty breezy in the Northland this weekend with east to southeast winds gusting 20 to 30 mph at times with higher gusts possible.
Areas of fog, some dense will also be found in parts of the Northland, especially near Lake Superior tonight through Sunday.
Note — There will likely be some breaks in the rain this weekend, but overall, it looks like a wet weekend in the Northland, and there is even a chance that will see some lake/terrain enhanced rain along the North Shore of Lake Superior as east to southeast winds cross Lake Superior which could boost rain totals a bit.
NAM 3km model radar forecast through 7 AM Sunday.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are likely in much of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through Sunday with locally greater amounts exceeding 2 inches possible.
The HREF model does show the potential for maximum rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches or more in some parts of northeast and east central Minnesota through Sunday morning.
Here’s a look at the system which will be impacting our weather the next few days.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Friday, September 22, 2023 (loop time ends 3:26 PM CT)
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SATURDAY
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday and Saturday evening over the central Plains extending as far north as southern Minnesota with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible (dark green area on map) as far north as central Minnesota including the Brainerd and Aitkin areas.
A zoomed in view on where we could see a few tornadoes Saturday afternoon-early evening, this risk covers areas of west central and southern Minnesota with the highest tornado potential (brown area on map) covering southwestern Minnesota.
A larger view of the tornado potential Saturday
A few tornadoes are possible Saturday stretching from eastern South Dakota and southern Minnesota, south to east central Oklahoma with the greatest tornado threat in southwest Minnesota and west central Iowa (brown area on map)
Drought Update as of September 19, 2023.
We’ve seen some improvement in the drought in parts of the Northland, most notably near Lake Superior from the Twin Ports including the South Shore where exceptional drought conditions are gone, although severe to extreme drought continues.
Note — Will likely see further improvement in the drought next week thanks to the rain this weekend.
Minnesota
2% of the state is in Exceptional Drought, up from 1% last week.
26% of the state is in Extreme Drought, up from 19% last week.
64% of the state is in Severe Drought, up from 61% last week.
94% of the state is in Moderate Drought, down from 98% last week.
100% of the state is Abnormally Dry, unchanged from last week.
Wisconsin
3% of the state is in Exceptional Drought, up from 1% last week.
24% of the state is in Extreme Drought, up from 21% last week.
63% of the state is in Severe Drought, up from 59% last week.
86% of the state is in Moderate Drought, unchanged from last week.
97% of the state is Abnormally Dry, unchanged from last week.
2-week drought monitor class change — September 19, 2023, compared to September 5, 2023.
We’ve seen a 1 to 2 class improvement in the drought in the light and dark green areas respectively.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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