6:54 PM Wednesday, September 20, 2023
An upper-level ridge was over the area today giving us quite a bit of sunshine and very mild temperatures for late September with highs reaching the 70s and lower 80s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin which is well above average for this time of the year, but not quite warm enough for any new temperature records to be set today.
We won’t see a whole lot of change in the pattern through Thursday with a ridge remaining near our area while will also continue to see a frontal boundary over western/northern Minnesota, and that front could have just enough lift near it to produce a few showers or thunderstorms from time to time mostly across north central Minnesota tonight and Thursday, but widespread rains are not expected through Thursday.
Rain chances continue this weekend and early next week, more on that below…
Temperatures from Wednesday afternoon.
Temperatures were running some +15 to +20 degrees above average across the region this afternoon and expect similar conditions for Thursday with another very mild day ahead.
Again, we could see a few showers or thunderstorms from time to time mainly over northern Minnesota tonight and Thursday, but the rest of the Northland should stay dry.
NAM 3km model radar forecast through 7 PM Thursday.
Rain chances continue this weekend and early next week, but like I said yesterday, the pattern this weekend is pretty complex as will be dealing with an upper-level ridge north of our area, while an upper low/trough tries to move east out of the Dakotas and into that ridge. How far north/east the trough gets will determine just how much rain will see in the Northland this weekend and early next week.
It does appear that the highest rainfall totals with the system this weekend will remain over western, central and southern parts of Minnesota where we could see widespread 1 to 2 inches or more of rain with lesser amounts of rain expected the farther north you go the way it looks now.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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