6:24 PM Sunday, October 1, 2023
The next few days look dry in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but some rain is possible late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night as a trough and cold front move northeast out of the Dakotas.
At the moment it looks like the greatest amounts of rain with this next system on Tuesday will be over the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota with less rain the farther east you go.
Scattered rains are possible again Thursday and Friday as a cooler air mass heads into the upper Midwest along with an upper-level trough which will dig SE into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes late this week.
NWS Blend of Models precipitation forecast.
NAM 3km model radar forecast valid from 1 PM Tuesday to 1 AM Wednesday.
Summer like temperatures across the region today on this 1st day of October 2023.
Record High Temperatures broken or tied in the Northland today, Sunday, October 1, 2023.
Brainerd, MN: 89 (old record high was 86 set in 1976)
International Falls, MN: 88 (old record high was 83 set in 1992)
Ashland, WI: 87 (tied the record high for today’s date which was set in 1922)
Note — Brainerd and Hibbing also set new record warm low temperatures on September 30th while Ashland tied their record warm low temperature for September 30th which was set in 2007.
Seeing temperatures in the 80s across most of Minnesota and Wisconsin late this afternoon with 90s in west central and southern Minnesota.
Temperatures late this afternoon were running some +25 to as much as +35 degrees warmer than average across the region, except near Lake Superior where the marine layer is holding tough keeping temperatures in the lower 60s which is still slightly warmer than average for October 1st.
Red: Locations breaking their daily record high temperature.
Magenta: Locations tying or breaking their monthly record high.
Orange: Locations tying their daily record high temperature.
Data at 4 PM Sunday, October 1, 2023.
Fog and low clouds continued late this afternoon in the Twin Ports and along the North Shore of Lake Superior, and the fog and low clouds will likely persist through the evening, but the marine layer will be eroding slowly tonight as the east wind shifts more out of the south which will help push the low clouds and fog back out over Lake Superior while possibly still affecting the tip of the Arrowhead on Monday.
Any cooling we see in the Northland late this week looks pretty temporary, as overall it looks like will continue to have above average temperatures in the Northland over about the next 2 weeks.
Note — The warmest temps will likely occur Monday and Tuesday with 70s and 80s, so the warmth we might see return next weekend into the following week will probably consist of highs in the 60s which is still above average around here at this time of the year.
September 2023 Temperature rankings for the Northland
Brainerd, MN: Warmest September on record with an average temperature of 64.8 degrees. The previous warmest September on record was in 2009 and 1931 with an average temperature of 63.6 degrees.
Ashland, WI: Tied with 2015 for the warmest September on record with an average temperature of 61.8 degrees.
Duluth, MN: 3rd warmest September on record with an average temperature of 61.9 degrees. The warmest September on record was in 1897 with an average temperature of 62.6 degrees.
Hibbing, MN: 4th warmest September on record with an average temperature of 59.2 degrees. The warmest September on record was in 1948 with an average temperature of 60.6 degrees.
International Falls, MN: 6th warmest September on record with an average temperature of 59.1 degrees. The warmest September on record was in 1920 with an average temperature of 62.7 degrees.
A look at the temperature anomaly for September 2023.
Orange and reds: Warmer than average
Blues and greens: Colder than average
September 2023 was a very wet month especially in parts of northeast Minnesota into far northwest Wisconsin including areas near Lake Superior.
Note — Duluth and Hibbing both had their 2nd wettest September on record last month.
Total Precipitation for September 2023
Duluth, MN: 10.36″
Hibbing, MN: 6.62″
Ashland, WI: 4.50″
Brainerd, MN: 4.19″
International Falls, MN: 3.14″
Percent of Normal Precipitation for September 2023
Duluth, MN: 298% of normal
Hibbing, MN: 216% of normal
Brainerd, MN: 161% of normal
Ashland, WI: 149% of normal
International Falls, MN: 105% of normal
Here’s a look at some stats for Duluth, Minnesota for the month of October.
Average number of days with a high of at least 70 degrees is 2 days. Most is 12 days set in October of 1963.
Average date for the first 32 degree or lower temperature is September 30th. Last year’s first 32 degree or lower temperature was on September 28th.
Average snowfall: 2.7 inches
Greatest snowfall total: 14.0 inches set in October of 1933.
Past few years snowfall totals for October at Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
2015: Trace
2016: Trace
2017: 11.1 inches (4th snowiest October on record)
2018: 1.5 inches
2019: 0.9 inches
2020: 12.0 inches (2nd snowiest October on record)
2021: Trace
2022: 5.1 inches
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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