5:39 PM Saturday, September 30, 2023
A warm front currently in southern Minnesota late this afternoon will lift slowly north over the next 24 hours, and this warm front should make it into northern Minnesota by Sunday evening, then this front will lift even farther north into Ontario on Monday.
The atmosphere is unstable this afternoon near the warm front across southern and central Minnesota into much of Wisconsin, but we haven’t seen much convection develop except over parts of southwest Minnesota this afternoon.
The chances that we see showers and thunderstorms develop over parts of the Northland tonight into early Sunday morning are on the low side, but with a northward moving warm front and an unstable air mass moving north into our area, this could be enough to trigger a few storms at times, and if thunderstorms are able to develop, heavy rain will occur.
One of the computer models that shows showers and thunderstorms developing over the Northland tonight through around mid-afternoon Sunday is the NAM 3km model (shown below)
It’s been a warm September in the Northland with average monthly temperatures running +4 to nearly +6 degrees warmer than average through the 29th.
Note — Ashland, Duluth and Hibbing are having a top 5 warmest September on record, while International Falls is having a top 10 warmest September on record, while Brainerd is having its warmest September on record (data thru the 29th)
Here’s a look at the temperature anomaly for September 2023 (thru the 29th)
Quite a few 90s showing up late this afternoon in far southern Minnesota, not bad on this final day of September 2023.
Temperatures are much cooler farther north today, but really these temperatures although still above normal for September 30th are running closer to where they should be at this time of the year.
October will begin on a warm note with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but it will be cooler once again near Lake Superior.
Note — Warmer temperatures in the lower 80s will make it to areas near Lake Superior Monday and Tuesday as winds become more southerly in direction.
Parts of east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin picked up some decent amounts of rain Friday into early Saturday morning with rainfall amounts of around 1 to 2 inches, and there was also another area of higher rainfall totals centered over parts of northern Minnesota and this occurred mainly Friday morning.
24 Hour Precipitation Reports ending the morning of September 30, 2023
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota; MesoWest
Grantsburg, WI 0.6 SSW: 2.10″
Danbury, WI 5.6 NE: 1.86″
Barnum, MN 4.3 W: 1.85″
Askov, MN 5.7 E: 1.74″
Sarona, WI 3 E: 1.71″
Webb Lake, WI: 1.67″
Tamarack, MN 2 S: 1.64″
Aitkin, MN 3.2 S: 1.59″
Moose Lake, MN: 1.56″
Hayward, WI: 1.50″
Pine City, MN 1.8 ENE: 1.50″
Minong, WI: 1.42″
Shell Lake, WI 4.3 SW: 1.35″
Siren, WI: 1.18″
Brainerd, MN: 1.03″
Solon Springs, WI: 0.92″
Glidden, WI: 0.85″
Hinckley, MN: 0.82″
Spooner, WI: 0.82″
Clam Lake, WI: 0.63″
Superior Airport: 0.52″
Poplar, WI: 0.43″
Esko, MN: 0.39″
Duluth Sky Harbor Airport: 0.37″
Ashland, WI: 0.30″
Duluth Airport: 0.29″
Washburn, WI: 0.28″
Saginaw, MN: 0.21″
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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