6:32 PM Wednesday, October 11, 2023
A strong area of low pressure and upper-level trough located over the western U.S. today will be moving out onto the Central Plains on Thursday, then will see this whole system lift east-northeast across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes Friday-early Saturday.
This system will bring rain to northwest Wisconsin and east central Minnesota on Friday, but northern Minnesota should stay mostly dry thanks to some drier air pushing south out of Ontario and also due to the storm track being too far south to bring any precipitation to northern Minnesota the way it looks now.
Greatest rainfall amounts with this system Thursday and Friday should be over south-central Minnesota into much of Wisconsin with rainfall totals of 1-2″+ looking likely for those areas (lesser amounts in far northern Wisconsin)
Lesser amounts of rain are expected farther north including for Duluth.
East to northeast winds will be increasing near Lake Superior and Twin Ports on Thursday with wind gusts of around 20 to 30 mph expected. Winds increase even more on Friday with wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph possible.
Note — Gales are possible on western Lake Superior Friday with waves of 8 to 13 feet.
Much of the Northland should stay dry tonight and Thursday, but some lake effect rain showers are likely at times near Lake Superior due to northeast winds coming down the lake along with enough of a temperature contrast from the surface to aloft to get some lake effect rain to develop.
NAM 3km model radar forecast valid 7 PM this evening to 7 PM Thursday.
Rain associated with a low coming out of the Rockies will push slowly north into east central Minnesota, Twin Ports and northwest Wisconsin late Thursday night/Friday morning with rain expected through the afternoon and evening before tapering off early Saturday morning the way it looks now.
European model radar forecast valid 7 PM Thursday to 7 AM Saturday.
Rain (green)
Snow (blue)
Wintry Mix (pink)
Precipitation Anomalies for October 2023 (thru 4 PM on the 11th)
Duluth, MN: -0.89″ below normal
Ashland, WI: -0.89″ below normal
Brainerd, MN: -0.19″ below normal
Hibbing, MN: -0.18″ below normal
International Falls, MN: +0.37″ above normal
Note — Much of the Northland is running below average in precipitation so far this month, but in the long-term we’re still nearly +6.00″ above normal in precipitation in Duluth since September 1st.
Here’s the total precipitation forecast through 7 AM Saturday.
500mb analysis from Wednesday afternoon, October 11, 2023.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Wednesday, October 11, 2023.
*GUSTY WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS*
Strongest winds near Lake Superior Thursday through Saturday. Winds will likely peak Friday.
European model wind gust forecast valid from 1 PM Thursday to 7 PM Saturday.
*GALE WATCH FRIDAY*
Something we haven’t seen much of lately is the sun, but that changed a little bit today as the clouds scattered out enough in some parts of the area for the sun to come out, it wasn’t a lot, but will take any amount of sun we can get considering how overcast it has been lately.
Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Wednesday, October 11, 2023 (loop time ends 4:31 PM CT)
Thanks for reading!
Tim