5:10 PM Friday, October 20, 2023
A clipper system over north central Manitoba late this afternoon will drop southeast rather quickly tonight, with the center of the surface low forecast to be near Green Bay, Wisconsin around daybreak on Saturday. This system is moving in slower than expected, and the result from this was that much of the Northland saw quite a bit of sunshine on this Friday with pleasant fall temperatures in the 50s with 40s in the tip of the Minnesota Arrowhead while downright balmy temperatures for mid-October which were in the 70s covered much of west central into southern Minnesota this afternoon.
We will see some rain showers in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin which will spread SE across the area this evening and overnight with some lingering showers likely during the day on Saturday as tonight’s clipper and trough dig SE across the area, and then exits off to the east later in the day Saturday.
We’re looking at mostly dry conditions across the Northland during the day Sunday, but some rain showers return to the area for Sunday night and possibly into Monday and Tuesday as well but there is quite a bit of uncertainty in the weather pattern as we get into next week.
NAM 3km model radar forecast through 7 PM Saturday.
Rainfall totals ranging from around 0.10″ to 0.50″ are forecast in northeast Minnesota into far northern Wisconsin by Saturday afternoon with no rain expected farther west/south tonight or Saturday.
Late Friday afternoon surface analysis.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Friday, October 20, 2023 (loop time ends 4:50 PM CT)
Model spread continues to be on the high side for next week as indicated by the orange colors on the images below which shows the forecasted 500mb pattern valid from Monday, October 23, 2023, through Friday, October 27, 2023.
About the only thing there is better agreement on is for temperatures to trend colder in the Northland by late next week with a chance for high temps only in the 30s to around 40 degrees late next week into next weekend.
There continues to be a chance for at least a little snow in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin late next week, but it still appears that the highest snow amounts would be well west of the Northland next week.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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