6:04 PM Thursday, October 19, 2023
A clipper type system currently over western Canada late this afternoon will move southeast reaching northeast Minnesota Friday evening, to around Milwaukee and Chicago by around daybreak on Saturday.
As is typical with clipper systems, they don’t have a lot of moisture but there will be enough moisture and lift to generate some rain showers Friday afternoon into Friday night in parts of northeast Minnesota and northern Wisconsin with a few showers lingering into the day Saturday.
Wind will be an issue, however, as is typical with clippers. Will see northwest winds increase across much of the Northland Friday night with wind gusts of 15 to 30 mph likely.
There will be quite a range in temperatures Friday afternoon with 70s likely in southwest Minnesota while extreme northeast Minnesota (Grand Marais area) will remain in the 40s.
Shower chances increase from NW-SE in the Northland Friday afternoon (especially later in the day)
NAM 3km model radar forecast valid from 1 PM Friday to 7 PM Saturday.
Rainfall Forecast through early Saturday afternoon.
There should be some pretty strong lift which will move SE through northeast Minnesota and far northern Wisconsin late Friday afternoon/evening, and this should help generate some showers.
Northwest winds will be increasing in western Minnesota with gusts >30 mph Friday afternoon and these gusty winds will spread farther south/east reaching the Northland Friday night into Saturday morning with wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph.
NAM 3km model wind gust forecast valid from 1 PM Friday to 1 PM Saturday.
NEXT WEEK’S PATTERN
Temperatures to start next week will likely be warmer than average in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but colder air could move in late next week/next weekend. Note — How cold and for how long, and how far east will the cold air get are uncertain right now, but there continues to be a chance that will see high temperatures only in the 30s to around 40 in much of the Northland late next week/next weekend.
The pattern also looks like it could turn active at times next week, and if enough cold air makes it this far east, and we keep enough moisture around, then we could be seeing the first snows of the season in parts of the Northland late next week/next weekend, but confidence is low on snow amounts right now.
Average temperatures so far this month have been running warmer than average in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Here’s a look at the average temperature and their departure from normal for October 2023 (thru the 18th)
Brainerd, MN: 52.4 degrees, +4.1 degrees above average
Ashland, WI: 51.5 degrees, +3.8 degrees above average
Duluth, MN: 49.9 degrees, +2.8 degrees above average
Hibbing, MN: 47.1 degrees, +3.9 degrees above average
Drought Update as of October 17, 2023.
Minnesota
1% of the state is in Extreme Drought, down from 5% last week.
25% of the state is in Severe Drought, down from 39% last week.
58% of the state is in Moderate Drought, down from 72% last week.
95% of the state is Abnormally Dry, down from 96% last week.
Wisconsin
3% of the state is in Extreme Drought, down from 6% last week.
23% of the state is in Severe Drought, down from 30% last week.
68% of the state is in Moderate Drought, down from 74% last week.
93% of the state is Abnormally Dry, down from 99% last week.
5 Week Drought Monitor Class Change
October 17, 2023, compared to September 12, 2023.
We continue to see significant improvement in the drought across the Northland.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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