5:06 PM Sunday, October 22, 2023
Rain returns to the Northland late tonight, but this rain should move out of the area by around mid-morning on Monday, but there are additional chances for more rain Monday night through Tuesday, and there might even be a few thunderstorms mostly in northwest Wisconsin on Tuesday as a plume of higher elevated CAPE builds northeast out of southern Minnesota.
Duluth area: Some rain late tonight-early Monday morning from around Midnight to 7 AM. The rest of the day Monday looks mainly dry.
The greatest rainfall amounts through Wednesday morning are forecast to be over southern Minnesota into central Wisconsin where we could see anywhere from 0.50″ to >1″ of rain, and the northern extent of these higher rain totals could affect southeast portions of northwest Wisconsin (Siren, Hayward and Hurley areas) with lesser amounts of rain expected in northeast Minnesota.
NAM 3km model radar forecast through 7 PM Monday.
There is a chance for a few thunderstorms from south central Minnesota into much of Wisconsin late Monday night into Tuesday with a lower chance for thunderstorms in northern Wisconsin.
Thunder probability forecast valid 7 AM Tuesday to 7 AM Wednesday. Note — Higher chances for thunder in darker green and blue colors on the loop below.
A significant pattern change still looks to occur over the next week or so.
Although temperatures this week will start warmer than average in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, a much colder air mass will begin to push south/east out of western Canada, the northern Rockies and northern Plains by late this week, and this much colder air mass could have some staying power as it could linger well into next week.
Daytime temps only in the 30s are forecast in much of the Northland late this week lingering through the middle of next week including for Halloween, and there is even a chance that temps during the day will struggle to hit 30 degrees in parts of the Northland next weekend through around Halloween.
This week’s temperature anomaly forecast — October 23-28.
Next week’s temperature anomaly forecast — October 30-November 4.
Will be seeing quite a temperature gradient setting up across the region over the next few days with much colder air pouring into the northern Rockies by midweek with 850mb temperatures lower than -10C, while much warmer temperatures cover areas farther south/east, with 850mb temperatures as high as +14C in southeast Minnesota Wednesday afternoon.
LATE WEEK SNOW CHANCES
Chances for snow continue late this week mainly in the Thursday-Friday time frame, but it still looks like the most impactful winter weather with chances of 4″ or more of snow will remain well to the west of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin late this week.
Here’s a look at the ensemble models probabilities for 4″ or more of snow late this week. Note — Higher probs. in blue and purple colors on the maps below.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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