4:59 PM Sunday, November 5, 2023
Two areas of low pressure will move across the Northland tonight into early Monday before exiting to the east by Monday afternoon.
One low will lift east-northeast out of eastern South Dakota tonight, while another low moves east-southeast out of northern North Dakota. Eventually will see both lows phase into one main low as it crosses Lake Superior on Monday. This system will bring some rain to much of the Northland tonight into Monday morning with a few lingering rain or snow showers Monday afternoon mainly over northern Minnesota as colder air pushes SE behind the exiting low.
Breezy conditions will also be found in the Northland tonight and also on Monday with south or east winds tonight shifting to the west and northwest on Monday with gusts to 15 to 30 mph.
Duluth area: Rain at times tonight. Rain chances diminish Monday morning especially by mid to late morning. Breezy east to southeast winds tonight shifting to the northwest Monday with gusts to 30 mph.
HRRR model radar forecast through 6 PM Monday.
Rain (green)
Snow (blue)
Mix (pink/purple)
Rainfall amounts with tonight’s system will be highest in northeast Minnesota especially along the North Shore of Lake Superior we could see >0.50″ of precipitation. Other locations in north central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin are forecast to get anywhere from 0.10″ to around 0.30″ of precipitation with lower amounts forecast farther south including for Brainerd, Pine City, Siren and Spooner.
The best chances for >1″ of snow tonight and Monday will be in parts of Ontario (north of Thunder Bay) with trace amounts possible Monday in extreme northern Minnesota.
Note — No snow expected in Duluth tonight or Monday.
Tonight marks the first of two systems to cross the Northland through midweek. The second system affects the area late Tuesday into Wednesday.
500mb forecast through 6 PM Friday, November 10, 2023.
Lower 500mb heights/unsettled weather in blue/green colors on the animation below while orange colors represent higher 500mb heights and mostly quieter weather.
The system which could affect the Northland late Tuesday into Wednesday does have a better chance at producing a little snow in parts of the Northland, with northern Minnesota including the Arrowhead and North Shore having the greatest chance for an inch or more of snow with that midweek system.
Duluth area: Mostly rain near Lake Superior with snow or rain on top of the hill the way it looks now from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Snowfall accumulations <1″ on top of the hill.
We saw quite a range in temperatures across the region this afternoon with 60s in southwest Minnesota and 30s over northern Minnesota. Note — The temperature at Madison, MN (southwest part of the state) reached 70 degrees this afternoon.
We are looking at near normal to slightly below normal temperatures in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin this week.
But as we get into next week it still looks like will be seeing quite a warmup across the Northland with a shot for afternoon temperatures to reach or even exceed 50 degrees on a few days next week.
Looking at the forecast for next week’s pattern features a zonal flow (mostly west to east) this prevents any cold air from pushing south out of Canada next week.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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