6:17 PM Thursday, November 9, 2023
-Temperatures will stay on the cool side Friday and Saturday although nothing too cold compared to average for this time of year with afternoon temperatures mostly in the mid 30s to around 40 in the Northland with overnight/morning temps in the 20s to lower 30s.
-Warmer temperatures arrive on Sunday and these warmer temperatures should persist into much of next week. Afternoon temps ranging from the upper 40s to middle 50s are likely across the Northland for much of next week.
-A shakeup in the pattern is possible Thanksgiving week with a more active and potentially cooler pattern developing, but there is quite a bit of uncertainty right now in model guidance on how the pattern trends after next week.
-Blustery conditions continue in the Northland tonight with northwest winds gusting to around 25 mph. Winds diminish a bit Friday.
Average temperatures so far this month are running about -1 to nearly -3 degrees below average in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but with the warmer temperatures ahead we should erase these deficits by this time next week.
Here’s a look at the monthly average temperatures and their departure from normal so far this month (thru Nov. 8, 2023)
Hibbing, MN: 29.2 degrees, -2.1 degrees below average
International Falls, MN: 29.3 degrees, -2.7 degrees below average
Duluth, MN: 32.9 degrees, -2.2 degrees below average
Brainerd, MN: 35.0 degrees, -1.2 degrees below average
Ashland, WI: 36.4 degrees, -0.7 degrees below average
We’ve seen a greater number of warmer than average days (39) compared to colder than average days (25) so far this fall in Duluth.
Above average temperatures are still expected in the Northland next week.
EPS model forecast for November 13-18, 2023.
And the EPS model continues to show warmer than average temperatures persisting in the Northland through Thanksgiving.
GEFS model temperature anomaly trends for November 13-18, 2023.
Oldest model run is days 9-13, and the newest model run is days 5-9.
Above average temps in orange and red colors on the loop below.
GEFS model temperature anomaly trends for November 18-23, 2023.
The GEFS model is trending cooler during the aforementioned time frame, although this model still shows above average temps in the Northland.
Oldest model run is days 12-16, and the newest model run is days 10-14.
Scattered flurries and snow showers persist in the Northland tonight and probably into Friday as well.
NAM 3km model radar forecast through 6 PM Friday.
Less than 1″ of snow through Friday.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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