6:03 PM Wednesday, November 22, 2023
*A dry pattern continues in the Northland through Saturday.
*NW flow next week with a few chances of flurries/snow showers as couple weak systems pass through, but no major winter storms expected through next weekend, December 3rd.
*0.8″ of snow so far this month in Duluth. Nearly -9″ below normal to date, and just 8% of our normal snowfall so far this month.
*A chilly Thanksgiving with highs in the 20s to around 30 which is about -5 to -10 degrees below average for this time of the year.
*Temps late Thursday night/Friday morning in the single digits and 10s.
A colder air mass is moving into the Northland late today with a steady stream of cold air advection spilling south/east out of the northern Plains.
850mb temperatures are as low as -20 to -24C in parts of central Canada this afternoon and some of that cold air will be moving south/east into the Northland on Thursday into Friday morning before we see some slight moderation Friday afternoon into Saturday.
Seeing some frigid temperatures today in Nunavut, Canada with temperatures of -15 to -35F with single digit temperatures covering much of northern/central Canada.
We will see another wave and cold front move SE across the Northland on Sunday and this disturbance could go on to produce a little snow with <1″ of accumulation the way it looks now.
Here’s a look at the total snowfall forecast through November 30th.
LONG RANGE FORECAST
Looking ahead to next week features some uncertainty on how the pattern sets up which will also determine where temperatures trend throughout next week.
A rather deep trough could setup over eastern Canada, Great Lakes into the eastern U.S. with an upper-level ridge over western Canada and the Pacific northwest.
EPS model has a colder look when it comes to the temperatures in the Northland next week.
While the GEFS model has trended a bit warmer over the last 3 model runs.
Oldest model run is Days 8-12 on the loop below and the newest model run is Days 6-10.
Blue colors=Below average temps
Here’s a look at the average monthly temperatures and their departure from normal in the Northland for November 2023 thru the 21st.
Ashland, WI: 38.1 degrees, +3.8 degrees above average
Brainerd, MN: 38.0 degrees, +5.1 degrees above average
Duluth, MN: 36.0 degrees, +4.0 degrees above average
International Falls, MN: 32.9 degrees, +4.2 degrees above average
Hibbing, MN: 32.3 degrees, +4.4 degrees above average
We continue to see widespread above average temperatures this month over the Lower 48 (orange and red colors on the map below) with just a small area with below average temps (blue colors)
Total precipitation and departure from average in the Northland for November 2023 thru the 21st.
Duluth, MN: 1.29″, -0.21″ below average
International Falls, MN: 1.16″, +0.06″ above average
Hibbing, MN: 0.88″, +0.03″ above average
Last 2 weeks precipitation anomaly
Brown colors=Drier
Green and blue colors=Wetter
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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