5:40 PM Monday, November 27, 2023
A very cold night ahead with lows in the single digits across the Northland with a few subzero temperatures likely as well especially in northern Minnesota.
1.3″ of snow so far this month in Duluth which is -11.1″ below normal to date. It doesn’t look like will be getting any more snow the rest of this month and if that is the case, then November 2023 will tie with November 1908 for 13th least snowy November on record.
Note — Looking at past Novembers since 2000 which had a monthly snowfall total of 5″ or less which there are a total of 8 shows that 6 of them went on to produce below average snowfall for the entire season, while 2 of them produced above average snowfall for the rest of the season. See list below.
*Average snowfall total for November in Duluth is 14.1″.
*Average seasonal snowfall total in Duluth is 90.2″.
Note — 1st number on the list below represents the total snowfall in November.
2002: 4.3″ (02-03 seasonal total 56.3″)
2004: 1.4″ (04-05 seasonal total 91.5″)
2006: 4.0″ (06-07 seasonal total 80.7″)
2008: 3.2″ (08-09 seasonal total 73.6)
2009: 1.1″ (09-10 seasonal total 65.8″)
2011: 3.7″ (11-12 seasonal total 49.1)
2013: 4.7″ (13-14 seasonal total 131.0″) 3rd snowiest season on record.
2015: 4.4″ (15-16 seasonal total 81.4″)
A pretty impressive shot of cold air for late November with temperatures this afternoon only in the low to mid 10s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Temperatures this afternoon were running about -15 to -20 degrees below average for November 27th.
A very cold air mass will remain over the Northland tonight and Tuesday before we see some warmer air push east out of the northern Rockies for midweek.
With all the cold air moving over the warmer waters of the Great Lakes it’s no surprise that we’re seeing widespread lake effect clouds and snowfall today in the northwest wind favored lake effect snow belts, but we’ve also been seeing some lake effect clouds and snow showers downwind of the larger inland lakes across northern Minnesota today.
Note — The average water temperature of Lake Superior was around 43 degrees today or +6C while the air blowing over Lake Superior had temperatures of around -18C, and this large difference in temperatures is helping to fuel some pretty impressive lake effect snow bands today along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northeast Wisconsin and upper Michigan.
Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Monday, November 27, 2023 (loop time ends 3:06 PM CT)
Lake effect snow showers will continue tonight over Iron County along the South Shore in northwest Wisconsin with a few flurries/snow showers lingering over other parts of the Northland tonight, and then we could see a few snow showers or flurries on Tuesday mainly over northern Minnesota as a warm front moves east out of the Dakotas.
NAM 3km model radar forecast through 6 PM Tuesday.
LATE WEEKEND SNOW CHANCES?
There is a chance for a little snow in parts of northeast and east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Sunday, but at the moment this doesn’t look like a very big system with snow totals capping off at around 1″.
There’s currently about 4 out of 20 GEFS ensemble members which are showing around 1″ of snow in Duluth on Sunday.
Here’s the GEFS model snowfall accumulation forecast through 6 AM Monday, December 4, 2023.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEK
Still seeing good model agreement between the EPS and GEFS models regarding the temperatures for next week which continue to look warmer than average in the Northland.
Note — Above average temperatures in the Northland in early December would mean highs in the 30s and maybe a few 40s with overnight temps in the 20s.
EPS model temperature anomaly forecast valid December 4-9, 2023.
GEFS model temperature anomaly forecast valid December 4-9, 2023.
Oldest model run is days 10-14 on the loop below and the newest model run is days 8-12.
Orange and red colors=Above average temps.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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