6:06 PM Tuesday, December 12, 2023
With a persistent mild pattern ahead, the chances are increasing that will go the entire month of December without a subzero temperature in Duluth. The last time Duluth went the entire month of December without a subzero low was in December 2015, and before that December 1959.
It also looks like we could make a good run at the warmest December on record in Duluth which occurred in 1877 with an average monthly temperature of 32.7 degrees. The average temperature so far this December (thru the 11th) 28.6 degrees.
4.5 inches of snow so far this season in Duluth which is nearly -20 inches below normal to date and is just 19% of our normal snowfall to date. No signs of a snowier pattern in Duluth at least through Christmas.
The next few days look dry in the Northland, but we could see a little precipitation Friday into early Saturday as a cold front moves across the area, but any precipitation that we see (rain or snow) doesn’t look very significant when it comes to the amount of rain or snow that we could see late this week.
EPS model shows the highest chances for getting 1″ or more of snow north/northeast of Duluth on Friday (blue and purple colors on the map below)
Note — Chances for >1″ of snow in Duluth on Friday have decreased from 20% on Monday to 10% today according to the EPS model.
NWS Blend of Models continues to show very little snow in the Northland through late next week.
The pattern looks pretty quiet across the upper Midwest next week, but there have been some hints at least on the GFS model for perhaps a more active period around Christmas, but with all the mild air in place, it’s very possible that we could see more rain rather than snow should a system track favorably to impact our area around Christmas.
EPS model 500mb forecast valid December 20-25, 2023.
Well above normal temperatures are expected next week across the Northland.
EPS model temperature anomaly forecast valid December 20-25, 2023.
GEFS model temperature anomaly forecast valid December 20-25, 2023.
Oldest model run is days 11-15 and the newest model run is day 9-13 on the loop below.
Above average temperatures in orange, red and pink colors on the animation below.
Here’s the 10-Day Temperature Forecast for Duluth from the NWS Blend of Models.
Thanks for reading!
Tim