5:20 PM Wednesday, December 13, 2023
We saw widespread 30s in the Northland this afternoon and come Thursday afternoon temperatures should be about 10 degrees or so warmer than Wednesday afternoon which will put much of the Northland in the 40s, and a few locations might even hit 50 degrees Thursday afternoon.
Note — Highs on Thursday will be running about +15 to +25 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year.
Today’s highs in the Northland and their departure from normal for December 13th.
Ashland, WI: 38 (+10 degrees above normal)
Brainerd, MN: 37 (+10 degrees above normal)
Duluth, MN: 35 (+10 degrees above normal)
Hibbing, MN: 33 (+11 degrees above normal)
International Falls, MN: 32 (+11 degrees above normal)
***RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 14TH***
Ashland: 53 set in 1998
Duluth: 52 set in 1894
Brainerd: 52 set in 1998
Hibbing, MN: 50 set in 1998
International Falls: 47 set in 1998
An amplified pattern in place today with two rather strong upper lows/troughs, one covering the northeast U.S., the other over the southwest U.S., while a big ridge was found in between the troughs today.
Note — 500mb heights near the upper ridge over the northern Rockies were averaging 572 meters today which is about +2.5 sigma for this time of the year, or in other words this is a pretty strong ridge with abnormally high 500mb heights so far north in mid-December.
The upper-level system over the southwest U.S. is producing quite a bit of snow in higher elevations in parts of Colorado and New Mexico where winter storm warnings and advisories are in effect.
NWS Snowfall Forecast through Friday.
Here’s a look at the system over the southwest U.S. today via water vapor imagery.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Wednesday, December 13, 2023 (loop time ends 4:01 PM CT)
And a larger view of the current pattern via water vapor imagery. It’s a pretty amplified pattern right now.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Wednesday, December 13, 2023 (loop time ends 4 PM CT)
Colder risks are starting to show up next week across the southern/eastern U.S., especially on the EPS model, but for us in the Northland it’s more of the same with above average temperatures forecast for next week and through Christmas according to the EPS and GEFS models.
Keep in mind though that above average temps in our area at this time of year would consist of afternoon temperatures in the upper 20s and 30s, with 40s possible on a few days, while temps at night/morning would be mainly in the 20s.
EPS model temperature anomaly forecast for December 20-25, 2023.
GEFS model temperature anomaly forecast for December 20-25, 2023.
Oldest model run is days 10-14 and the newest model run is days 8-12 on the loop below.
Above average temperatures in orange, red and white colors.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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