5:48 PM Thursday, December 21, 2023
The weather pattern will be turning more active through early next week.
A lead system lifting east-northeast out of Kansas won’t produce a whole lot of precipitation in our area tonight or Friday, but southerly winds out ahead of this system will advect higher amounts of moisture northward into the Northland which will likely lead to areas of drizzle tonight and Friday. Some patchy freezing drizzle is also possible mainly early Friday morning, but no significant impacts are expected.
A stronger system will move across the Rockies and out into the central Plains over the next few days, and this system will likely produce a more widespread precipitation event in the Northland from late Saturday night through early Monday morning, but with such a mild airmass in place, a lot of this precipitation will fall as rain, but a wintry mix could develop in parts of northern Minnesota Sunday afternoon/evening before precipitation comes to an end late Sunday night.
Goes-16 water vapor image from late Thursday afternoon.
Here’s an animation of the image above ending 4:40 PM CT, Thursday, December 21, 2023.
FOG POTENTIAL
Areas of fog could become more widespread across the region late tonight and this fog could persist through much of the day Friday with visibilities <1 mile.
HRRR model visibility forecast through 6 PM Friday.
A very humid airmass for this time of the year will be lifting north into our area the next few days likely peaking on Sunday when we could see precipitable water reaching 0.75″ or higher in our area.
Much of the Northland could see upwards of 0.40″ to 0.70″ of precipitation by Monday morning, with most of it falling from late Saturday night through Sunday night.
Note — A second round of precipitation could affect parts of the Northland late Monday afternoon through early Wednesday.
Total precipitation through Christmas morning, December 25, 2023.
Highest snow amounts this weekend will be over parts of the Rockies and western High Plains (outlined in dark red on the map)
What happens next Monday through about the middle of next week is uncertain right now as it will depend on the track of a slow-moving low-pressure system which is forecast to be over the central Plains Monday morning. If this system tracks far enough to the north, then another round of precipitation would affect parts of the Northland from Monday evening through early Wednesday morning, with northeast and east central Minnesota including Duluth, and into northwest Wisconsin having the greatest chance at seeing this second round of precipitation compared to locations in northern Minnesota.
Precipitation types from late Monday through Wednesday morning look to mostly be in the form of rain once again, but there is a chance that we could also see a wintry mix which could include some freezing rain and wet snow. Stay tuned.
Thanks for reading!
Tim