6:03 PM Tuesday, December 26, 2023
There’s no doubt about it this December has been very mild across the northern Plains and upper Midwest including for us in the Northland with average monthly temperatures running a good +10 degrees or more above normal.
Average temperatures and departure from normal for December 2023 (thru the 25th)
Ashland: 33.1 degrees, +12.1 degrees above normal
Brainerd: 30.1 degrees, +12.4 degrees above normal
Duluth: 30.0 degrees, +12.0 degrees above normal
International Falls: 27.6 degrees, +14.8 degrees above normal
Hibbing: 26.6 degrees, +13.4 degrees above normal
Note — Every location on the list above except for Duluth is already running +3 to +5 degrees above what their warmest December is on record (see list below). It’s pretty much a lock that December 2023 will be the warmest December on record in much of the Northland, while Duluth could fall just short of their warmest December on record, but regardless December 2023 will finish as the warmest December on record or the 2nd warmest on record in Duluth.
Warmest December on record
Ashland: 30.0 degrees set in 2015
Brainerd: 26.6 degrees set in 1913
Duluth: 32.7 degrees set in 1877
International Falls: 22.8 degrees set in 1913
Hibbing: 24.7 degrees set in 1939
Christmas Eve and Christmas Day 2023 was the warmest on record anywhere you see a 1 on the map below with data going back to 1893.
Still no signs will be seeing any arctic air/subzero temperatures in the Northland for the rest of this week and even through much of next week, but some changes are possible later next week.
EPS model temperature anomaly forecast for January 1-6, 2024.
Above normal temps in orange and red
Below normal temps in blues
GEFS temperature anomaly trend for January 1-6, 2024.
Oldest model run is days 9-13 on the loop below and the newest model run is days 7-11.
Above normal temps in orange and red
Below normal temps in blues
As for snowfall, there’s no real big signals showing up in model guidance which would indicate that we would be seeing a snowier pattern develop in the Northland over the next week or so.
Here’s the 15-Day Snowfall Forecast for Duluth via the 50 member EPS model from today, this forecast goes out to January 9th.
Out of the 50 members, none show anything more than 7″ of snow over the next 2 weeks in Duluth, and there’s only 1/50 members showing 7″ of snow, the others are at 6″ or less.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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