A little sun and snow ahead but overall, a pretty quiet pattern with a lack of arctic air

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6:08 PM Wednesday, December 27, 2023

No subzero temperatures in Duluth this month and none are in the forecast for the rest of the month. The last time we had no subzero temperatures in Duluth during the month of December was in 2015 and before that 1959.

There’s been 6 years dating back to 1874 with no subzero temperatures in Duluth in December. Here’s the list (2015, 1959, 1918, 1913, 1888 and 1887). December 2023 will make it 7 years.

For those wondering, the rest of winter 2015-2016 did turn colder in Duluth with a total of 19 subzero nights in January and February, but that’s still below the average of 35 subzero nights from December through February (1874-2022 climate period)

3.10″ of precipitation in Duluth so far this month. December 2023 will rank in the top 10 for wettest Decembers on record — See list below.

  • 3.89″ (1889)
  • 3.76″ (1891)
  • 3.70″ (2015 and 1968)
  • 3.69″ (1950)
  • 3.27″ (2022)
  • 3.02″ (1883)
  • 2.89″ (2009)
  • 2.88″ (2013)
  • 2.72″ (2021)
  • 2.69″ (2019)

0.5″ of snow in Duluth today (on top of the hill at the NWS) which brings the monthly total for December to 3.9″ and this is -12.4″ below normal to date and is just 24% of our normal snowfall to date. 

Note — Even though we’ve seen well below normal snowfall this month in Duluth, December 2023 won’t rank in the top 10 for least snowy Decembers on record.

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Areas of fog and freezing fog tonight into Thursday morning with visibility <1 mile in parts of the Northland. Conditions should improve Thursday afternoon.

HRRR model visibility forecast through 12 PM Thursday.

Hopefully will begin to see a little more sun in the Northland Thursday and Friday after a stretch of overcast skies.

There was some sun today in central Wisconsin into parts of western upper Michigan, and there were even some breaks in the clouds this afternoon in parts of northeast Minnesota.

Looks like we could see a little snow in the Northland Saturday into early Sunday as an area of low pressure moves southeast out of Manitoba and Ontario, but this system won’t have much moisture to work with since it’s coming out of Canada.

This won’t be a big snow event this weekend with snowfall totals of <1″ for most, but some lake effect snow is expected along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northwest Wisconsin with accumulations of 1 to 3 inches possible.

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We’re still dealing with the same system that brought all the rain along with some freezing rain/wet snow to the Northland over the last few days.

Areas of drizzle, fog (freezing fog) will be found in the Northland tonight into Thursday morning, but hopefully will see at least a little sun by Thursday afternoon.

A very slow-moving upper-level low was located near St. Louis, MO late this afternoon and this low will continue to move slowly to the east-southeast through Friday.

Goes-16 water vapor loop from Wednesday afternoon, December 27, 2023.

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Next week’s temperature trends

More of the same when it comes to temperatures in the Northland next week, still mild (although not as warm as it’s been this week), and still no signs of subzero temps/arctic air impacting the Northland through much of next week.

EPS model

GEFS model

Oldest model run is days 8-12 on the loop below and the newest model run is days 6-10.

Above normal temperatures in orange and red.
Below normal temperatures in blue colors.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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