6:36 PM Thursday, February 22, 2024
A strong cold front will move south across the Northland tonight.
A few snow showers and flurries are possible with this front and will also see a few hours of lake effect snow showers Friday morning mainly along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northern Wisconsin where we could see a trace to 2 inches of snow by early Friday afternoon. The western extent of this lake effect snow could affect parts of Duluth and Superior early Friday morning with snowfall amounts of a trace to a half an inch possible.
Highs Friday will be about 20 to 30 degrees colder compared to the highs we saw in the Northland today, and highs on Friday will range from the upper teens in far northern Minnesota to the 20s to around 30 degrees across the rest of the Northland. Gusty north winds are also likely tonight through early Friday afternoon with wind gusts of 15 to 30 mph.
Temperatures warm up again this weekend with highs in the 30s and 40s.
Note: Today’s high of 50 in Duluth marked the 2nd time this month with a temperature of 50 or warmer. Average number of days at or above 50 in Duluth in February is zero. Most 50-degree days in February is 3 days set in 2017 (weather records for Duluth date back to 1875).
NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast through 3 PM Friday.
Today’s highs and departures from normal for February 22nd
Ashland: 54 (+25 degrees above normal)
Duluth: 50 (+23 degrees above normal)
Brainerd: 48 (+18 degrees above normal)
International Falls: 46 (+21 degrees above normal)
Hibbing: 46 (+21 degrees above normal)
There’s been some data issues today which has resulted in very limited temperature data in much of the U.S. today, but that hasn’t been the case in Canada, and you can clearly see where the arctic air is late this afternoon, and that arctic air will shift farther south/east into the Northland on Friday, but it will be a quick shot of cold air as milder temperatures return once again this weekend into early next week.
Pretty incredible what we’ve seen with the temperatures this winter in Duluth.
71 days since December 1st have been warmer than average (red) in Duluth compared to just 11 days which have been colder than average (blue) since December 1st.
A broad trough of low-pressure is forecast to move east out of the Rockies early next week. All of the computer models agree on that happening.
The uncertainty in the computer models would be with the timing of this trough and the strength of the trough, as well as the track of one or more low pressure systems that develop near and out ahead of this eastward moving trough.
There continues to be a chance for some rain and snow in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin centered on next Tuesday-Wednesday the way it looks now, but whether or not any of this precipitation is significant is uncertain right now.
Note: There’s only 5 out of 50 or 10% of EPS model members showing 3 or inches of snow in Duluth the middle of next week.
The euro ensemble (EPS) model doesn’t show very high odds for getting much snow with this system in the Northland for the middle of next week with mostly very low chances for snow totals exceeding 3 inches in our area. Things could change though over the next few days.
Thanks for reading!
Tim