5:00 PM Sunday, March 17, 2024
It’s going to be a fun few days for weather enthusiasts watching the computer models as signals continue to show up for some type of system to move out of the Rockies next weekend, but the exact track this system takes and what types of precipitation it could bring to the Northland are uncertain and it will likely remain that way for a few more days.
The possibilities range from a significant winter storm with high winds and heavy snow, to a scenario where we see snow first, then a changeover to freezing rain and then just plain rain with ice accumulations possible for a time, and then there’s a scenario where much of our area only gets a little snow as the main system passes farther south and away from our area.
A wide range in potential storm tracks in the March 24-26 time frame, ranging from a low centered over north Texas next Monday morning to a low centered in far eastern North Dakota to as far east as southern Lake Michigan, so it’ll take a few more days for the models to settle on a common solution.
What is known is how the 500mb pattern sets up later this week into early the following week, and it’s a pattern that supports some active weather from the Plains to the Great Lakes as upper-level toughing and lower 500mb heights (blue colors on map) develop over a broad area from the western to northern U.S. and into Canada with some ridging and higher 500mb heights (orange colors on map) over parts of the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S.
If we look at the projected snowfall totals just for the March 24-26 time frame, we see there’s 40/50 EPS members forecasting 4 inches or more of snow in Duluth, while 21/50 members forecast 10 inches or more of snow with a high-end amount of 26 inches.
Here’s a look at the different ensemble model snowfall forecasts using a 10:1 snowfall ratio.
This forecast is valid till 7 PM Tuesday, March 26, 2024, and takes into account both snow events which could occur between late this week and early next week.
EPS model
GEFS model
CMCE model
European model wants to produce a widespread and potentially significant ice storm next weekend with chances for freezing rain and ice accumulations highest in the Northland from Sunday afternoon to early Monday morning with freezing rain spreading from south to north Sunday. Note: This is just one model’s forecast as to how things could play out next weekend.
Precipitation starts as snow on the euro model next Sunday then switches over to freezing rain, and then just rain as temperatures warm enough late Sunday night into Monday.
A more conservative approach for potential ice accumulations using the EPS model which shows the low and high-end ice amounts valid for Sunday-Monday, March 24-25, 2024.
Note: The range in Duluth is from 0.00″ to as much as 0.21″ of ice accumulation next Sunday-Monday morning.
Another potential hazard with next weekend’s storm is strong northeast winds.
A very tight pressure gradient could develop between a very strong high >1040mb near Hudson Bay/eastern Canada and a sub 990mb low moving out of the Rockies. This difference in pressure could lead to very strong winds out of the northeast especially near Lake Superior and Twin Ports next Sunday into Monday with a chance for wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph or stronger.
European model wind gust forecast valid 1 AM Sunday to 7 PM Monday, March 24-25, 2024.
There continues to be a chance for some snow later this week centered on the Thursday-Friday morning time frame but there is quite a bit of uncertainty in the models as to where this area of snow sets up.
20-member GEFS model precipitation type forecast valid at 7 PM Thursday, March 21, 2024.
Snow in blue colors.
Total precipitation so far this year
International Falls, MN: 1.89″
Eau Claire, WI: 1.27″
St. Cloud, MN: 1.19″
Duluth, MN: 1.13″
Twin Cities, MN: 0.78″
Precipitation anomalies so far this year
Twin Cities: -1.70″ below normal
Eau Claire: -1.69″ below normal
Duluth: -1.51″ below normal
St. Cloud: -0.91″ below normal
International Falls: -0.03″ below normal
Percent of normal precipitation so far this year
International Falls: 98% of normal
St. Cloud: 57% of normal
Duluth: 43% of normal
Eau Claire: 43% of normal
Twin Cities: 32% of normal
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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