6:30 PM Sunday, March 24, 2024
-A major winter/spring storm will continue to impact the Northland through Tuesday.
-Gusty winds, snow/blowing snow, some rain and freezing rain are likely through Tuesday.
-Periods of whiteout/near whiteout conditions especially near Lake Superior due to falling and blowing snow tonight and Monday.
- Blizzard Warning continues until 7 PM Tuesday for the North Shore of Lake Superior including Two Harbors, Silver Bay and Grand Marais.
- Winter Storm Warning continues until 7 PM Tuesday for all of north central and east central Minnesota, parts of northeast Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin including Duluth, Superior, International Falls, Ely, Hibbing, Isabella, Grand Rapids, Walker, Brainerd, Aitkin, McGregor, Pine City, Hinckley, Sandstone, Cloquet, and Solon Springs
- Winter Storm Warning continues until 1 PM Monday for parts of northwest Wisconsin including Bayfield, Washburn, Spooner, Shell Lake, Grantsburg, Siren, Ashland, Hayward, and Hurley.
Still seeing some differences in the computer models today regarding how far west and north the warmer air reaches into the Northland Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning.
It’s likely that much of northwest Wisconsin will see snow change over to rain from south to north during the day Monday especially by the afternoon as 850mb temperatures climb above 0C.
The corridor including parts of northeast and east central Minnesota into far northwest Wisconsin including Duluth and Superior could see snow mix with or change to freezing rain or even plain rain Monday night with some ice accumulations more likely inland from Lake Superior, while locations closer to Lake Superior could see mostly rain with little to no icing Monday night.
It should be noted that some of the computer models keep the area outlined in orange on the map below cold enough for little to no mixing to occur Monday night, or if any mixed precipitation were to occur it would only be for a short time, otherwise precipitation would fall as snow.
North central Minnesota say from near Brainerd and Walker north to Bigfork and International Falls should stay cold enough for snow through the duration of this storm.
Duluth area: The highest snowfall rates which could approach 0.5″ to 1″/hour are most likely to occur tonight and through the day Monday.
NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast through 7 AM Tuesday.
Snow (blue)
Rain (green)
Wintry Mix (pink and purple)
Here’s my updated snowfall forecast as of 6 PM Sunday.
Totals on the map below are additional accumulations on top of what has already fallen, and this forecast is through 1 PM Tuesday.
Note: Nearly 3 inches of snow has fallen so far today at the National Weather Service in Duluth (total through 4 PM Sunday)
- 10 to 14 inches of snow for Duluth
- Amounts >14 inches possible along the North Shore due to lake/terrain enhanced snow through Monday evening.
- Mixing/rain issues continue Monday-early Tuesday morning in all of northwest Wisconsin, as well as in far eastern Minnesota, to possibly as far north as Duluth and the North Shore.
STRONG WINDS
Gusty northeast winds will continue especially near Lake Superior and in the Twin Ports tonight and Monday with wind gusts of 25 to 45 mph. Some of the strongest wind gusts may occur during the day Monday.
Note: Gusty northeast winds will likely continue through Monday night or beyond 7 PM Monday.
The combination of falling snow and gusty winds will continue to produce blowing snow with periods of whiteout or near whiteout conditions tonight and Monday especially along the North Shore of Lake Superior including the Twin Ports area.
HRRR model wind gust forecast through 7 PM Monday.
STORM SETUP
Strong area of low-pressure averaging 983mb was over far southwest Kansas late this afternoon. This low is expected to track northeast reaching central Iowa by tomorrow evening and is expected to track through western or central Wisconsin Tuesday before reaching central portions of Lake Superior Tuesday night.
A strong warm air advection pattern will continue through Monday night north/east of the low approaching from the central Plains. And then a strong cold air advection will occur behind the low Tuesday.
An impressive jet stream pattern helping to fuel this storm with winds aloft greater than 130 knots surging northeast into the southern Plains today with another corridor of strong winds aloft covering central and eastern Canada today.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
As is often the case with these big mid-latitude cyclones in spring we have a snowy side and also a severe side.
There is a potential for some severe thunderstorms in parts of the central and southern Plains through tonight with large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible.
The potential for severe thunderstorms shifts farther south/east into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday with damaging winds and a couple tornadoes being the main threats.
An isolated strong tornado or two is possible Monday in parts of eastern Louisiana into west central Mississippi (yellow hatched area on map)
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible farther north over about the west half of Iowa into northwest Missouri Monday under the cold core part of this system with damaging winds and large hail the primary severe weather threats Monday.
Thanks for reading!
Tim