6:13 PM Monday, April 22, 2024
It appears that an active weather pattern is expected to begin later this week and may persist into the following week.
Several weather systems are expected to bring rain to the Northland, accompanied by gusty winds occasionally.
Timing of these systems could change, but currently it looks like one system will pass through the area Friday-Saturday, with another one in the Sunday-Monday time frame.
The fundamental weather pattern will feature a pronounced trough across the western United States and a prominent upper-level ridge situated over the Ohio Valley and the eastern United States.
Within the western trough, individual low-pressure systems are expected to emerge and move northeastward from the Rockies and Plains.
The ensemble models are in strong agreement, consistently predicting two or more inches of precipitation for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin over the two-week period ending on May 6th.
The weather system from Friday to Saturday is expected to bring an all-rain event to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. However, the system from Sunday to Monday might introduce colder air behind the low, potentially leading to snow or a mix of precipitation types in parts of northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead region. Currently, the likelihood of wintry precipitation later this weekend remains quite low.
Here is the forecast for this coming Sunday according to the Euro model.
The initial system of this active weather pattern is expected to move across the Northland area tonight and into Tuesday.
A cold front is passing through the area tonight, bringing with it isolated to scattered rain showers.
A secondary, more potent cold front is set to move southward across the Northland on Tuesday. This front is expected to cause a sudden drop in temperatures by Tuesday afternoon, accompanied by additional rain showers. There’s also a chance for an isolated thunderstorm due to some weak instability and steeper lapse rates in the area.
Tonight’s weather system can be viewed through GOES-16 water vapor imagery. The loop concludes at 5:50 PM CT on Monday.
In the Northland, precipitation totals are anticipated to vary, with some areas receiving a mere trace while others could see up to about a quarter inch by Tuesday evening.
Higher totals appear to be favoring areas of northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead region of Minnesota.
Should the cold air arrive swiftly, there may be a brief period of wet snow or a rain-snow mixture near Lake Superior and in regions of northwest Wisconsin by Tuesday afternoon. However, minimal to no snow accumulation is anticipated.
HRRR model simulated radar forecast through 7 PM Tuesday.
Expect mild temperatures in the low to mid-50s around the Twin Ports from mid-morning to early afternoon on Tuesday. However, anticipate a sharp decline to the mid-30s between 1-3 PM as a potent cold front swiftly moves southwest across Lake Superior.
Note: A short spell of gusty northeast winds, ranging from 25 to 40 mph, is expected to accompany the cold front passing near Lake Superior on Tuesday afternoon, but these strong winds are anticipated to be brief.
Also of note, Today, Monday, April 22nd, represents the seventh consecutive day that Duluth has experienced a peak wind gust of at least 30 mph.
NAM 3km model temperature forecast valid 12 PM to 7 PM Tuesday.
A trace to less than an inch of snow may be expected on Tuesday afternoon in parts of the Northland.
There are multiple opportunities for severe thunderstorms, indicated by the yellow areas on the maps, across the central and southern Plains later this week and into the weekend.
All types of hazards are possible, including significant hail, destructive winds, and potential tornadoes.
Thursday’s severe weather outlook
Friday’s severe weather outlook
Saturday’s severe weather outlook
Thanks for reading!
Tim