5:13 PM Sunday, May 26, 2024
This afternoon, showers and isolated thunderstorms emerged near the lake breeze boundary across the Northland. The slow movement of these storms has led to torrential downpours for those caught beneath them. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to dissipate by mid to late evening, after which fog is anticipated to be the primary weather concern in parts of the Northland later tonight.
Radar loop ending 4:46 PM CT, Sunday, May 26, 2024.
Once again, the rainfall has been inconsistent today, yet areas that have experienced rain have encountered heavy downpours, with one-hour rainfall estimates ranging from a quarter to over half an inch.
Here’s a larger view of the weather across the region this afternoon.
Several areas of rain are present, with one area moving northeast across central and eastern Wisconsin. A multitude of scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving eastward through the Dakotas, while more isolated weather activities are occurring in northeast and east central Minnesota, as well as far northwest Wisconsin.
Radar loop ending 4:44 PM CT, Sunday, May 26, 2024.
Today’s satellite imagery reveals three primary systems: one ascending northeast through the central and eastern Great Lakes, another descending southeast from northern Montana, and a third positioned over central Manitoba.
Goes-16 water vapor loop ending 4:50 PM CT, Sunday, May 26, 2024.
An upper-level system will track east-southeast from western Minnesota on Monday, followed by another upper-level system descending south/east from Ontario on Tuesday..
NAM model 500mb forecast valid 7 AM Monday to 7 PM Tuesday.
The likelihood of isolated to scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will persist throughout the Northland area from Monday into Monday evening. The intensity of these showers is expected to peak in the afternoon and early evening hours.
Brief heavy downpours will be possible with some of this activity Monday afternoon. However, Monday’s rain coverage should be isolated to scattered, indicating that not everyone will experience rain on Monday.
HRRR model simulated radar forecast valid 7 AM Monday to 7 PM Monday.
Computer models indicate a higher likelihood of showers and thunderstorms across western, central, and southern Minnesota on Monday, with somewhat less coverage in the Northland.
The satellite imagery over the Northland today is quite chaotic, displaying multiple cloud layers. High-level clouds are moving east-northeast, while a field of cumulus clouds is developing, particularly inland from Lake Superior. Additionally, to the east over Lake Superior and northwest Wisconsin, there’s a separate cloud mass moving northward and eastward, linked to a system currently over the Midwest.
Goes-16 visible satellite loop ending 3:51 PM CT, Sunday, May 26, 2024.
Dense fog is anticipated to form in northeast Minnesota and far northern Wisconsin, including areas near Lake Superior, late tonight and is expected to persist until mid-morning on Monday.
- Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.
- Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.
Multiple severe thunderstorm and tornado watches will remain active until late tonight. Additionally, a particularly dangerous situation (PDS) tornado watch is in place for regions of southeastern Missouri, southern Illinois, northern Arkansas, and the far western areas of Kentucky and Tennessee.
Saturday saw over 400 severe weather reports, including 27 tornadoes impacting Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, and Arkansas.
Looking ahead, next week could feature the first major heat dome of the summer, developing across parts of the Western U.S., extending into the Western High Plains, and possibly reaching the Northern Plains. It will be important to monitor this situation throughout the week to see how the computer models project the evolution of this ridge.
At present, it appears that the Northland will be situated too far east of the ridge to experience the most extreme heat, which is predicted to occur further west across the northern/central Rockies and southwestern Canada. However, there is still a possibility for temperatures in the Northland to be above average during the first week of June. This could indicate temperatures reaching the 70s and 80s in our region.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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