6:51 PM Sunday, June 16, 2024
Flood Watch in effect from Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning for parts of northeast and east central Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin.
Some cities included in the flood watch are Hibbing, Brainerd, Grand Rapids, Pine River, Duluth, Pine City, Hinckley, Superior, Grantsburg, Spooner, Aitkin, Hill City, and Walker.
-Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
-Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood prone locations. Excessive street flooding and flooding of creeks and rivers are possible.
Note: Rainfall totals for June 2024 are consistently 1 to almost 3 inches above the norm, except for International Falls, where they are more than an inch below the usual amount for June thru the 16th.
This is an overview of rainfall totals and deviations from the norm for June 2024, up until 4 PM on the 16th.
Ashland, WI
Total: 4.89″
Departure: +2.80″ above normal
Duluth, MN
Total: 3.72″
Departure: +1.58″ above normal
Brainerd, MN
Total: 3.47″
Departure: +1.41″ above normal
Hibbing, MN
Total: 2.26″
Departure: +0.15″ above normal
International Falls, MN
Total: 0.85″
Departure: -1.03″ below normal
A cold front is advancing eastward from central Minnesota late this afternoon; however, there has been minimal shower and thunderstorm activity along and ahead of this front, despite the presence of ample warm, humid, and unstable air in the area this afternoon.
One possible explanation for the lack of convection development could be the warm temperatures aloft, with 700mb readings ranging from +10 to +12C, which are quite high and likely contribute to a capping inversion in the atmosphere. Additionally, the increasing heights following this morning’s disturbance are also not conducive to the formation of thunderstorms.
The possibility of generating sufficient lift along the cold front to break through the cap and enable the development of a few thunderstorms this evening remains uncertain as of late this afternoon.
This afternoon, there’s a noticeable difference in dew point temperatures, with humid conditions in the 60s and 70s in northeast Minnesota and northern Wisconsin, contrasting sharply with the much drier air and dew points in the 30s and 40s in eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota.
The forecast for Monday and Tuesday indicates a risk of heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin.
The cold front moving through the Northland tonight is expected to reach as far south as northern Iowa and central Wisconsin by Monday morning. This front will likely stall in its northward movement throughout Monday, as several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are forecasted to move east-northeast across southern Minnesota and central Wisconsin, hindering any significant progress of the front.
The warm front is expected to move north out of southern Minnesota by Monday night, which could bring several rounds of showers and thunderstorms, as well as the possibility of heavy rain affecting parts of north central and northeast Minnesota, extending into eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
The HREF model effectively identifies the corridors with potential for heavy rainfall, one extending from southern to eastern Minnesota and into much of Wisconsin, and another across parts of north-central Minnesota, which is likely to develop Monday night or early Tuesday morning.
Here is the rainfall forecast according to the NWS Blend of Models, valid through 7 AM Wednesday.
Widespread totals of 1-2 inches with localized areas receiving higher amounts of 3 to 4 inches.
Here are two computer model forecasts, effective from 1 AM tonight until 7 AM Tuesday.
The HRRR model predicts a more aggressive development of rain and thunderstorms in the Northland and also moves the precipitation northward faster compared to the NAM 3km model.
Here is the NAM 3km model forecast.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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