1:56 PM Tuesday, June 18, 2024
The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma, has issued a tornado watch effective until 8 PM tonight. This watch encompasses parts of Minnesota, including International Falls, Hibbing, Grand Rapids, Walker, Brainerd, Aitkin, Pine City, Hinckley, Moose Lake, Cloquet, Duluth, Two Harbors, Isabella, Silver Bay, and Grand Marais.
Primary hazards include
-A few tornadoes possible.
-Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely.
-Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible.
Northern Minnesota has experienced a stormy day, with multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms moving east-northeast across the region. Occasionally, some of these storms have escalated to severe levels.
Radar loop ends 1:42 PM Tuesday, June 18, 2024
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop south of the current activity in northern Minnesota by late afternoon. These weather conditions are likely to persist into the evening before dissipating later tonight.
NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast through 2 AM Tonight.
Early this afternoon, low pressure over the far western region of Minnesota is expected to move northeastward. Concurrently, a warm front and a cold front will progress north and east through the evening.
Despite the overcast skies across much of the Northland, there is significant instability, with CAPE values ranging from 1000 to 3000 J/kg, particularly in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Today, the mid-levels of the atmosphere are experiencing strong winds with speeds ranging from 40 to 50 knots which is favorable for some severe weather.
Today, there is significant shear conducive to severe storms, with surface to 6 KM shear ranging from 40 to 50 knots in northern Minnesota and 30 to 40 knots in northwest Wisconsin.
In addition to the threat of severe thunderstorms, there is also a risk of torrential rainfall and possible flooding through this evening due to a highly humid air mass present over the area, with precipitable water values ranging from 1.60 to 1.80 inches.
The area away from Lake Superior is very muggy this afternoon, with dew points ranging from the mid-60s to the lower 70s.
Various rainfall forecasts indicate the possibility of receiving 1 to 3 inches, or even more, of rain in certain areas of the Northland by this evening.
Thanks for reading!
Tim