Weather Blog for Duluth and the Northland

5:20 PM Tuesday, July 2, 2024

The forecast for the next 5-7 days indicates intermittent unsettled weather, attributed to persistent mid and upper-level troughing over the upper Midwest, with several upper lows forming beneath this trough.

This weather pattern typically results in sporadic pop-up showers and occasional thunderstorms, which usually peak in the afternoon or early evening. Rainfall will not be constant over the coming days; however, scattered showers are expected across the Northland. The likelihood of rain appears higher from Friday through Sunday, though there is a chance for a few showers nearly every day, including Wednesday and Independence Day.

The blue hues on the animation over the northern and central Plains, extending to the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes, indicate lower 500mb heights and suggest unsettled weather conditions.

Here’s the European computer model 500mb forecast valid from July 4-9, 2024.

NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast through 7 PM Wednesday.

The heaviest rainfall over the next seven days is expected to occur across southern and central Minnesota and into central and southern Wisconsin, with widespread amounts of 1 to 2 inches or more anticipated.

In the northern regions, encompassing northeast Minnesota, northwest Wisconsin, and the Twin Ports area, expected rainfall amounts range from a quarter to a half-inch over the coming week. However, localized areas may experience significantly higher amounts of rainfall.

5-Day Significant River Flood Outlook valid through 7 AM Sunday, July 7, 2024.

Significant river flooding is happening in areas marked red, is likely in those marked orange, and possible in the yellow zones on the map below.

Goes-16 water vapor loop from Tuesday, July 2, 2024, loop time ends 4:50 PM CT.

Today, the southwestern U.S. and southern Plains are experiencing intense heat, with temperatures ranging from the 90s to the low and mid-100s. However, there is no indication that this heatwave will extend far enough north to impact the Northland, at least for the majority of next week, owing to the upper-level winds originating from the west or northwest.

The forecast for Duluth over the next ten days indicates temperatures will hover around the seasonal norm, with highs mostly in the mid to upper 70s and lows typically in the mid-50s.

The humidity outside has increased slightly in the Northland today, with dew point temperatures reaching the lower 60s this afternoon. It’s not overwhelmingly humid, but the increase in moisture is perceptible.

Conditions are even muggier to the south today, with dew points reaching into the 70s in Iowa.

Thanks for reading!

Tim