Weather Blog for Duluth and the Northland

7:23 PM Sunday, July 21, 2024

Following a dry Sunday, the likelihood of scattered showers and thunderstorms will rise again on Monday.

As observed on Saturday, not all areas will experience significant rainfall; however, there may be areas of intense downpours potentially surpassing half an inch to an inch. Additionally, some storms, particularly in the afternoon to early evening on Monday, may bring lightning, gusty winds up to 40 mph, and small hail.

HRRR model simulated radar forecast valid 7 AM to 7 PM Monday.

The HREF model indicates maximum rainfall amounts for Monday, showing areas with totals exceeding 1 inch. However, this is not expected to be a widespread heavy rain event.

NWS Blend of Models rainfall forecast through late Monday night.

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As anticipated, a significantly less humid air mass has settled over parts of the Northland, particularly near Lake Superior, where dew points have dropped into the 50s this afternoon. However, a more humid air mass with dew points ranging from the 60s to around 70 degrees is not far off, and it’s expected to shift eastward by Monday, however, this will only last for a day as less humid conditions are expected to return by midweek.

The region is experiencing a significant amount of wildfire smoke today, primarily at higher altitudes, which is visible as a milky white haze in satellite images. The primary impact from this smoke has been for hazy looking skies today.

Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Sunday, July 21, 2024, loop time ends 6:36 PM CT.

Rainfall totals for July 2024 through the 20th

International Falls, MN: 4.37″
Brainerd, MN: 2.09″
Hibbing, MN: 1.21″
Duluth, MN: 0.83″
Ashland, WI: 0.68″

July has been drier than usual across much of the Northland, with rainfall totals approximately one to two inches below the norm. However, International Falls is an exception, boasting a surplus of over 1.50 inches of rainfall for the month.

Departure from normal rainfall for July 2024, through the 20th

International Falls: +1.55″ above normal
Brainerd: -0.92″ below normal
Hibbing: -1.54″ below normal
Duluth: -1.90″ below normal
Ashland: -1.81″ below normal

This week’s temperature trends suggest that northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin will experience below-average temperatures. However, this may be misleading as we anticipate area-wide warmer temperatures later in the week. Additionally, at this time of year, below-normal temperatures can still result in the 70s for daytime highs across much of the region.

Heading into next week, computer models are signaling a warm spell for the Northland, suggesting several days with temperatures in the 80s and the possibility of a day or two approaching 90 degrees.

Temperatures are expected to reach close to 80 degrees in Duluth on Monday, followed by a cooldown on Tuesday and Wednesday. Later in the week, we anticipate several days with high temperatures in the 80s.

Here’s the 10-Day temperature forecast for Duluth.

Thanks for reading!

Tim