10:57 AM Sunday, November 24, 2024
Non-subscribers will receive a free post, while I am preparing an updated snowfall map exclusively for paid subscribers, which will be available before 3 PM today.
A broad light to moderate snow event is expected to start late this evening, continue overnight, and extend into Monday, with the snowfall anticipated to taper off by Monday afternoon.
A Winter Weather Advisory will take effect this evening and remain until early Monday afternoon, covering northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, including the Arrowhead region, North and South Shore areas, and the Twin Ports vicinity.
Late this Sunday morning, temperatures in Duluth vary from 32 degrees at the Airport to 36 degrees at the Duluth Harbor. With east winds blowing from the relatively warmer waters of Lake Superior, which have an average temperature of around 45 degrees, these temperatures are likely to remain fairly stable through the evening.
In Duluth, the dew point temperatures were between 27 to 30 degrees late this morning, indicating potential for the temperature to decrease with the onset of tonight’s precipitation. It is anticipated that temperatures, even near Lake Superior, will fall to approximately 32 to 34 degrees as the precipitation descends through the somewhat drier air tonight. This indicates that the precipitation in the vicinity of Lake Superior is expected to be snow from late tonight through Monday.
The temperatures higher up in the atmosphere support snowfall in the Northland, with 850mb temperatures ranging from about zero to -4C from south to north in the area.
And the same can also be said for the 925mb temperatures which range from around -3 to -7C from south to north across the Northland late this morning.
The surface map late this morning is a little chaotic, but overall, we have two main lows, one over southeast Saskatchewan, the other covering southern Kansas. The low over southern Kansas is expected to track east-northeast passing near Chicago, Illinois around dawn on Monday.
A trough of low pressure connects these low-pressure systems, and sufficient lift and moisture flowing north into that eastward moving trough is what will give us our snow in the Northland tonight and Monday.
The bulk of the snow we see in the Northland should occur from late this evening into Monday morning but some scattered light precipitation which could range from snow to a mix of precipitation types is possible this afternoon and evening.
HRRR model simulated radar forecast valid 6 PM Sunday to 6 PM Monday.
Thanks for reading!
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