1:10 PM Monday, December 23, 2024
Some of you may have heard about a significant pattern change approaching, which would bring widespread cold and arctic air to much of the U.S. Let’s examine what a few of these long-range computer models are predicting.
Below is the CFS model temperature anomaly forecast through January 26, 2025, broken down in 7-day increments.
Orange, red and pink colors: Above normal temperatures
Blue colors: Below normal temperatures
Note: The CFS model isn’t too enthused about the pattern turning much colder in the Northland through the month of January. Sure, the anomalies come down as we get into mid and late January, but they still average above normal in our area.
The Euro weeklies do have a colder look, especially when compared to the CFS model, with this colder pattern taking over generally after the first week of January.
The main takeaway from all this is that there remains some uncertainty regarding the pattern’s evolution as we get into January.
Where will the most persistent cold establish itself?
Will the cold outbreaks continue to be transient, lasting only a few days before giving way to warmer weather?
It is also important to note that in the analog years considered for January 2025, six out of seven years had a very deep snowpack in Duluth, with the exception of January 2003, which had very little snow on the ground. The role of the snowpack, if any remains to be seen.
Stay tuned.
Here’s the temperature anomaly forecast from the Euro weeklies in 7-day increments through January 26, 2025.
Blue and green colors: Below normal temperatures
Here’s the CFS model 500mb height anomaly forecast through January 26, 2025.
Purple and red colors represent upper-level ridging and generally warmer weather while blue colors represent troughs and potentially colder weather.
What analog years are showing up for January 2025? Find out below.
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