6:30 PM Wednesday, March 26, 2025
The pattern has been active throughout the month, but these systems have not taken a favorable track to bring significant precipitation to Duluth. Will that change over the next week or so? Time will tell, but sometimes once a pattern becomes established, it is difficult to break. In other words, even though some computer models show substantial snowfall in Duluth through the middle of next week, this could easily change by tomorrow.
System/Storm number one: Friday
A winter storm watch been issued from Friday to early Saturday morning for northeast Minnesota, including the Arrowhead, North Shore, and Duluth. Freezing rain and sleet are the primary hazards, with some ice accumulation possible.
A few rounds of light to moderate precipitation are expected across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from Friday to early Saturday morning.
With temperatures well above freezing aloft, this precipitation will fall as rain. However, with colder surface temperatures, the rain that falls will freeze in some parts of the Northland.
Furthermore, there is a potential for heavier downpours which may include a few embedded thunderstorms on Friday and Friday evening. If thunderstorms occur, we could see more rapid ice and/or sleet accumulation on Friday.
Wind will pose a concern, particularly near Lake Superior as northeast winds intensify with gusts ranging from 25 to approximately 40 mph between Friday and Saturday morning. It is important to note that if ice accumulations become more significant (around a quarter inch or more), some power outages may occur due to the combined effects of gusty winds and ice buildup. At present, the likelihood of power outages appears low; however, this may change if precipitation amounts increase.
RGEM model simulated radar forecast valid 1 AM Friday to 1 AM Saturday.
Pink and purple: Mix precipitation (freezing rain/sleet)
Green and yellow: Rain
Blue: Snow
Ice Accumulation Forecasts for Duluth through 7 AM Saturday.
Euro Model: 0.15 to 0.20 inches
Euro ensemble model: Low end of nothing with a high-end amount of 0.23 inches.
NWS Blend of Models: 0.10 inches.
Note: Little to no snow is expected with this first system in Duluth from Friday to early Saturday morning.
Snowfall Forecast for Friday to early Saturday morning
Any snow with this first system looks to remain over far northern Minnesota near the Ontario border and also over the Arrowhead of Minnesota.
There is a possibility of a few non-severe thunderstorms in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Friday and Friday evening. This may result in occasional occurrences of thunder sleet or thunder freezing rain, particularly in northeast Minnesota on Friday.
There is marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe thunderstorms in the darker green area on the map, covering regions from south-central Minnesota to central Wisconsin. Hail up to quarter size (1″ diameter) is the primary hazard if severe thunderstorms develop on Friday.
System/Storm number two: Saturday-Sunday morning
Another wave may track northeast out of the central Plains to the upper Midwest this weekend but there is some uncertainty regarding the path of this system and how much moisture is able to push north into the colder air. However, some of the computer models today have trended more to the northwest with this system, which would increase the risk of accumulating snow and ice in northeast Minnesota and Wisconsin from Saturday into Sunday morning.
The second system appears to have a more substantial supply of cold air descending from aloft to the surface, which enhances the potential for snowfall in certain parts of the area this weekend.
The 850mb temperature forecast indicates storm potential for the upper Midwest, with a sharp temperature gradient ranging from approximately -8 in northern Minnesota to around +10°C in far southern Minnesota on Saturday.
One factor that may limit snow accumulations is the overall quick movement of this system over the weekend, with snowfall lasting perhaps around 12 hours or so based on current data. However, this could still result in significant amounts of snow, ranging from 2 to 4 inches or more, should this system track far enough to the north.
Stay tuned for updates.
The period from Friday to at least Sunday morning continues to look windy near Lake Superior including in the Duluth area as will see northeast winds gusting occasionally to between 25 and 45 mph from Friday to Sunday morning. Note: If snow does occur with the second wave Saturday afternoon to Sunday morning, then blowing snow could become an issue due to these gusty winds.
Euro model wind gust forecast valid 7 AM Friday to 7 AM Sunday.
System/Storm number three: ~Tuesday/Wednesday (April 1-2)
A third system may impact the Northland sometime around the middle of next week with more precipitation which could include another round of snow, but this one is roughly a week out so plenty of things could change between now and then.
Thanks for reading!
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