6:50 PM Saturday, April 12, 2025
A cold front moving into western Minnesota this evening will move slowly east, crossing the Northland on Sunday, while an area of low pressure initially over the central Plains Sunday morning lifts northeast, moving over western-central portions of Lake Superior by Monday morning. This low will also be deepening as it lifts northeast with the central pressure of the low dropping to around 991-995mb/29.26″-29.38″.
Along with the surface system, there will be an upper-level trough over the northern Rockies Sunday morning, which will deepen while moving east across the Northland Sunday night and Monday.
This system will bring occasional rain showers to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Sunday and Sunday night, and as the upper low approaches and the surface low positions itself over Lake Superior, strong northwest winds will develop, causing the column to cool, which will cause the rain to turn to wet snow in parts of the Northland late Sunday night and through the day on Monday.
Some of the snow could be heavy at times, especially Monday morning in parts of north central and northeast Minnesota, and this, combined with the gusty NW winds, could lead to some patchy blowing snow and reduced visibility to a mile or less.
NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid 7 AM Sunday to 1 AM Tuesday.
Rain – green
Snow – blue
Precipitation totals of up to an inch or more are expected in far northern Minnesota into the Arrowhead by Monday evening, with totals of around a quarter to half an inch expected farther south, including Duluth.
Here’s my updated snowfall forecast for Monday.
- Generally looking at about 1 to 3 inches of wet, heavy snow across northern Minnesota into the Arrowhead, with a chance for a smaller area that could see about 3 to 6 inches of snow.
- An inch or less of snow is possible farther south, including in Duluth.
- Temperatures on Monday are forecast to range from the 30s to around 40 degrees.
Check back for updates.
Strong northwest winds are expected to develop across the Northland on Monday, continuing into early Tuesday morning, with wind gusts of around 20 to 40 mph expected.
Euro model wind gust forecast valid 7 AM Monday to 1 AM Tuesday.
A few thunderstorms remain possible Sunday and Sunday night, especially from southern to eastern Minnesota into Wisconsin, as some elevated CAPE (instability) develops. Moisture will be limited, however; thus we are not expecting any severe weather with this system on Sunday.
A look at the upper-level system which deepens as it moves out of eastern Montana on Sunday morning, as depicted by the green colors in the loop below.
Euro ensemble model 500mb forecast valid 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM Tuesday, April 13-15, 2025.
Next system is expected to arrive later next week (Thursday-Friday time frame), and this one could bring some more rain to northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin.
Today, we’ve seen some scattered showers move east across parts of the Northland, and these showers should diminish before midnight tonight.
Radar loop ends 6:10 PM Saturday, April 12, 2025.
We’ve also seen a few thunderstorms this afternoon in east-central Minnesota from around Brainerd toward Mille Lacs Lake and Mora, as noted by the white, yellow, and red dots on the loop below, which represent lightning strikes through 6:20 PM today.
Rainfall Reports from Saturday, April 12, 2025 (ending 6 PM)
Source: MesoWest
Grand Marais Airport: 0.19″
Northome, MN: 0.13″
Winton, MN: 0.10″
Bay of Grand Marais, MN: 0.08″
Cook, MN: 0.06″
Orr, MN: 0.05″
Ely, MN: 0.03″
Isabella, MN: 0.02″
Brainerd, MN: 0.01″
Thanks for reading!
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