5:51 PM Wednesday, April 16, 2025
Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected on Thursday and Thursday evening across the southern half of Minnesota, extending into western and southern Wisconsin, Iowa, as well as portions of Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, and Illinois. The primary threats include large hail exceeding 1.5 inches in diameter, strong winds, and the potential for a tornado or two especially in parts of Iowa, far southern Minnesota, eastern Nebraska, northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may also occur in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Thursday and Thursday evening. Severe weather is not anticipated this far north; however, a few storms could bring small hail of 0.25 to 0.75 inches in diameter, gusty winds reaching 40 mph and heavy downpours.
It is important to remember that all thunderstorms produce lightning, which is a hazard in itself.
Euro model lightning density forecast valid 7 AM Thursday to 1 AM Friday.
Duluth: Rain is expected at times, particularly from Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. A few thunderstorms may also occur, primarily during the afternoon.
NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM Friday.
Note: Additional light rain is possible during the day on Friday, primarily affecting east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Rainfall amounts between approximately 0.1 inches and 0.5 inches are expected in northeast Minnesota and northwest from Thursday through Thursday, with locally higher totals exceeding 0.5 inches likely, particularly in areas experiencing thunderstorms.
This weekend, another system is predicted to move northeast out of the southern Plains; however, its track remains highly uncertain according to today’s computer models.
Solutions range from a system which completely bypasses the Northland, resulting in no precipitation on Sunday and Monday, to scenarios involving wet snow or rain affecting parts of northeast and eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, from Sunday evening through Monday.
Thanks for reading!
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