2:46 PM Monday, April 28, 2025
A tornado watch is in effect for southwest Minnesota until 8 PM tonight, and another watch is expected by 5 PM for parts of eastern and southeast Minnesota and west central Wisconsin.
Low pressure has moved into far western Minnesota early this afternoon, and this low will continue to head northeast through tonight.
Two cold fronts early this afternoon; one extends from the northwest half of Minnesota to north-central South Dakota, with another cold front over far southwest Minnesota. Both fronts will be moving eastward through tonight.
Southerly flow ahead of this system is transporting warmer and more humid air north-east out of southern Minnesota this afternoon.
The leading edge of the greater surface-based instability was over western and the southern half of Minnesota early this afternoon, and this should push farther east-northeast by late this afternoon, making it into at least the far southern portions of the Northland (south of Duluth).
You need surface-based CAPE to have a chance of a tornado.
There’s a lot of elevated CAPE in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin today, but without surface-based instability, the chance of a tornado is nil this afternoon. However, this elevated instability may cause storms to produce hail and possibly wind if they become strong enough through this evening.
High values (2 to 5) in the significant tornado parameter are present in west central and southwest Minnesota this afternoon, and they will likely move east-northeast into the evening. Note: An STP value of 1 are favorable for tornadoes if other conditions are met, so values this afternoon are running even higher than 1.
A tornado watch is in effect for southwest Minnesota until 8 PM, and I expect another watch to be issued further east later today.
Dew points of 60 or higher are present this afternoon in central and southern Minnesota, which is definitely enough moisture for the potential of severe thunderstorms.
A large range of temperatures this afternoon, from the 30s in parts of eastern North Dakota to the 70s in southwestern Minnesota.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to track northeast across the Northland for the rest of the afternoon and into this evening.
I believe the chances for severe thunderstorms have lowered in much of our area with this event as the main hazards appear to be from heavy downpours and lightning, with some hail and wind possible as well if storms become strong enough.
Note: If severe thunderstorms happen through this evening, they are most likely to occur near and south of a line from Hinckley to Hayward.
Radar loop ends 2:18 PM Monday, April 28, 2025.
Goes-16 enhanced water vapor loop ending 2:21 PM CT Monday, April 28, 2025.
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