4:11 PM Sunday, May 18, 2025
-Freeze Warning from late this evening until 8 AM Monday for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Expect temperatures as low as 27 to 29 degrees.
-Strong northeasterly winds are expected near Lake Superior from Monday to Wednesday, with gusts ranging from 20 to 35 mph, potentially reaching 40 to 50 mph.
-The Northland will remain on the northern edge of a rainy system the next few days.
The weather setup in the coming days shows strong high pressure over Hudson Bay, Canada, at over 1030 mb, and low pressure in the 990s mb range moving east-northeast from eastern Colorado.
This weather pattern typically results in very windy but predominantly dry conditions near Lake Superior and in other parts of the Northland, which is expected to persist through midweek. However, intermittent rain is possible over the western and southern portions of the region from Monday evening to Wednesday morning. It appears unlikely that this rain will extend much farther northeast than a line from Grand Rapids to Hayward, and this may even shift farther south than what some of the current models suggest.
The NAM model clearly shows a lot of dry air (brown) over Lake Superior and Ontario, which is expected to move south and west with northeast winds in the coming days, while the deeper moisture (green) will likely remain further south.
The NWS Blend of Models predicts rain totals of up to 0.1 inches extending as far north as Duluth and Grand Rapids on Tuesday; however, this projection seems overly optimistic for that northern extent.
The highest rain totals, likely 1 to 2 inches or more, are expected in parts of western and southern Minnesota over the next few days.
The Euro model actually shows the rain spreading pretty far to the north once we get to Tuesday, with at least low to medium chances for at least 0.1 inches of rain as far north as Duluth, but I think we will see things shift farther south over the next 24 hours. We’ll have to wait and see.
If you live in Duluth, lower your expectations for rain chances in the coming days.
It seems the snow may not be over just yet, as sufficient cold air could wrap into this extensive system, leading to rain mixing with or transitioning to snow from Tuesday through Wednesday morning in portions of the northern Plains and potentially in a small part of the upper Midwest.
Snow accumulation of an inch or more is most likely in central North Dakota through Wednesday morning, according to the Euro ensemble model forecast.
Temperatures this week will be cool in the upper Midwest, including the Northland.
Hitting 60 degrees in Duluth this week is unlikely until at least Thursday, and even then, 60-degree temperatures in late May are still slightly below normal.
So far this year, there have been 826 tornado reports in the U.S., compared to a mean of 609 up to May 17th.
Top 5 tornado states in 2025 as of May 17.
- Mississippi (96)
- Illinois (88)
- Missouri (87)
- Texas (84)
- Indiana (54)
Note: So far this year, there have been 20 tornadoes in Wisconsin and 7 in Minnesota.
Thanks for reading!
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