A cold front is expected to move south from Ontario on Wednesday, sweeping through northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from north to south during the afternoon and evening.
This front seems to have decent lift, supported by dual jet streaks to the north and south. However, moisture could be a limiting factor, with dew points only expected to reach the 50s near the front, even as PWATS rise to around 1 to 1.25 inches by Wednesday afternoon.
Here’s a look at a few convection allowing model forecasts valid at 7 PM Wednesday.
The NAM 3km model and MPAS-RT model indicate scattered showers and a few thunderstorms developing across northeast Minnesota on Wednesday afternoon, with these storms moving south-southeast through Wednesday evening.
Widespread rain isn’t likely with this front, but scattered showers and occasional heavy downpours could occur, lasting around half an hour in any given spot.
Some areas in the Northland might see between 0.05 and 0.25 inches of rain with the front on Wednesday, with the potential for locally higher amounts.
Rainfall Departures for August 2025 as of 4 PM on the 25th.
Duluth, MN: -2.07″ below normal
Hibbing, MN: -1.51″ below normal
Brainerd, MN: -1.25″ below normal
International Falls, MN: -1.10″ below normal
Ashland, WI: -1.09″ below normal
Subscribe to continue reading
Become a paid subscriber to get access to the rest of this post and other exclusive content.