Before Monday arrives, we have one more cool night ahead, with patchy frost possible in parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, especially inland from Lake Superior. Tonight’s lows will be in the 30s and 40s, but record-breaking cold is not expected, unlike the past few nights.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin late Monday afternoon, continuing into early Tuesday morning as a warm front slowly advances northeast from western and southern Minnesota.
As is often the case in convective setups, there are some differences in where models place the corridor of heavy rain developing Monday night, with some leaning farther north and others farther south.
Here are two model forecasts rainfall totals ending at 7 AM Tuesday.
The HREF model points to a significant rainfall zone of 2 to 3 inches or more across parts of the Northland, focusing on areas from Floodwood and Duluth to Two Harbors and Silver Bay, and stretching toward the Bayfield Peninsula in northern Wisconsin. This area might shift slightly over the next 24 hours, with the rainfall amounts potentially varying as well.
Elevated instability (CAPE) is expected to spread northeast into our area Monday afternoon, accompanied by lift from the surface warm front and a strengthening low-level jet that could exceed 40 knots later in the day. While the risk of severe thunderstorms remains low, there is a chance for heavy rainfall as moisture increases, especially with the possibility of storms repeatedly passing over the same areas Monday night.
Wildfire smoke is predicted to increase slightly on Monday and Tuesday this week, but most of it is expected to remain higher in the atmosphere rather than settling at ground level, unlike some of the earlier smoke events this summer.
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