A High Wind Watch has been issued for the North Shore of Lake Superior in northeast Minnesota due to the potential for strong winds on Friday. Northwest winds could gust up to 60 mph from mid‑afternoon Friday into Friday evening. These damaging winds may bring down trees and power lines, and widespread power outages are possible.
Warmer weather will return the next few days, but it will come at a cost. A deep low-pressure system around 985 mb tracking east across Ontario on Friday will generate strong, gusty winds across the Northland, especially during the day Friday. An associated Arctic front will slice southeast across the region, bringing a rapid wind shift, falling temperatures, and the potential for brief but intense bursts of snow and blowing snow during the afternoon and evening.
Temperatures will climb nicely ahead of Friday’s Arctic front, with much of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin reaching the 30s to even low 40s during the afternoon. Once the front blasts through, however, the warmup shuts down quickly. Much colder air pours in for the weekend, with highs only in the single digits and teens, and morning lows dropping to around 5 above to 20 below zero both Saturday and Sunday. It’ll feel like a sharp reset back to mid‑winter.
The warmer temperatures will actually arrive on Thursday, with highs climbing well into the 30s to near 40 degrees across the Northland.
…Friday’s setup…
Deep low pressure north of Lake Superior, with a tight pressure gradient (strong/gusty winds) developing across the Northland.
…Some Snow early Thursday morning…
Ushering in this warmer airmass could be a brief period of snow late tonight into early Thursday morning, with up to an inch of accumulation possible along the North Shore and Arrowhead. Farther south, including Duluth, a trace to around a half‑inch looks more likely.
Note: A little snow is possible in Duluth from around 1 to 5 AM on Thursday.
HRRR model simulated radar forecast valid 9 PM this evening to 7 AM Thursday.
…Snow Squalls possible Friday…
There is a potential for snow squalls across the Northland, especially in northern Minnesota, Friday afternoon into the evening as low‑level lapse rates steepen significantly during the day. If these squalls develop, expect rapid drops in visibility with brief near‑whiteout conditions, strong winds, and a quick half‑inch to one inch of snow accumulation.
Subzero temperatures returned to parts of the Northland on Wednesday morning, with Duluth reporting an official low of −5°F, while the coldest reading came from Ash Lake, MN at −11°F.
Note: Duluth has recorded 4 subzero nights so far this month, well below the February average of 11 subzero nights.
…Long Range Trends…
The potential for a more active pattern continues starting later next week and through at least the first half of March. Several systems could track toward the Upper Midwest during this period, which would increase our chances for seeing some precipitation.
All three major ensemble systems — EPS, GEFS, and CMCE — show 0.50 inches to over 1 inch of total precipitation across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin by March 12th. If all of that were to fall as snow, we’d be looking at some impressive totals. This will be something to watch as we head into early and mid‑March, but for now there’s still uncertainty regarding precipitation type with each system.
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