Weather Blog for Duluth and the Northland

The next few days in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin are expected to be mostly dry, with only a few isolated showers.

On Saturday, a more organized low-pressure system is expected to move east from the northern Plains, but it appears to be arriving in two waves. The main wave is forecast to track east-northeast across southern Minnesota, while a weaker disturbance moves east across northern Minnesota. This could result in a split rainfall pattern, with one area of rain affecting northern Minnesota and another impacting southern Minnesota, leaving the region in between—including the Twin Ports area—likely to see little to no rain on Saturday.

With this system still a few days away, model guidance may show some shifts in the areas of rainfall.

One notable aspect of Saturday’s system is its high moisture content, with precipitable water values ranging from 1.5 to over 2 inches, suggesting the potential for heavy, tropical-like downpours in areas that do receive rain.

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The National Weather Service’s model blend currently suggests relatively dry conditions for Saturday, considering the available moisture with the approaching system. However, this may also reflect weaker northern energy and reduced forcing. It will be interesting to see if future model runs indicate higher rainfall totals.

Wildfire smoke will continue drifting across the Northland through Friday afternoon. Most of it will stay high in the atmosphere, causing hazy skies, but occasional smoke may reach the ground, creating a noticeable smell. Widespread impacts at ground level are not expected over the next few days.

HRRR model forecast of vertically integrated smoke through 1 PM Friday.