While tonight’s temperatures will feel more like fall, with lows dipping into the 30s and 20s in some areas, the chill won’t last long. Milder air returns this weekend, with highs climbing into the 50s and lower 60s.
With no significant cold air outbreaks showing up in the forecast, Duluth is looking increasingly likely to make it through October without measurable snowfall.
…October Snowfall Trends…
It’s looking more and more likely that Duluth will see no snow this October. The city’s average October snowfall is 2.7 inches.
Looking back since 2000, in years with above-average October snowfall (2002, 2003, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2017, and 2022), four seasons ended with above-average totals, while the other four were below average.
The last October with above-average snowfall was in 2022, which turned out to be Duluth’s snowiest winter on record, with 140.1 inches of snow.
In Duluth, the past three Octobers (2023-2025) have all brought below-average snowfall, a trend that continued throughout each winter. Of those years, last winter had the most snow, but still ended the season with totals falling short of the average.
…Temperature Trends…
Today’s burst of chilly air will be brief, as a warmer airmass is already moving in from the west with 850mb temperatures reaching +10°C this afternoon. Meanwhile, the coldest air, with 850mb temperatures of -12°C, was centered north of Lake Superior, while the Northland experienced milder chill, with temperatures at 850mb dipping to around -2 to -3°C.
Note: As of October 15th, Fall 2026 has been 3.1 degrees warmer than average in Duluth.
It’s been a warm fall in Duluth, with above-average temperatures occurring on 30 days compared to only 12 days that were colder than average. Forecast guidance continues to favor a mild pattern, with no obvious signs of a prolonged cool-down through the end of October.
It’s no surprise that widespread above-average temperatures have been observed across the U.S. this month.
In northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, average temperature anomalies for October 2026 up to the 15th ranged from 4 to 6 degrees above normal.
A glance at the 500mb analysis from Friday afternoon on October 16, 2026.
Peak wind gusts on Friday, October 16, 2026.
Stannard Rock, MI: 55 mph
Brainerd, MN: 44 mph
Devils Island: 41 mph
Port Wing, WI: 40 mph
Hibbing, MN: 40 mph
Ashland, WI: 37 mph
Duluth Sky Harbor Airport: 36 mph
Silver Bay, MN: 36 mph
International Falls, MN: 36 mph
Duluth Airport: 35 mph
Hayward, WI: 35 mph
Two Harbors, MN: 35 mph
Grand Marais Airport: 35 mph
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