Today has been all about two systems: a strong northern stream trough digging southeast out of the Dakotas, and a southern stream system moving east-northeast from the central Plains. Southwesterly flow aloft carried moisture northeast ahead of these systems, bringing a rainy Thursday to northwest Wisconsin and east-central and northeast Minnesota.
By 7 AM Friday, northwest Wisconsin can expect another quarter to half an inch or more of precipitation, while northeast and east central Minnesota, including Duluth, will likely see about 0.05 to 0.25 inches more.
Note: After tonight, it seems we’ll enter a dry spell that should last at least until the middle of next week.
Blend of models total precipitation through 7 AM Friday is displayed below.
If the timing is just right, with some showers hanging around as cold air moves in, we might catch a few snowflakes early Friday morning, mainly over Minnesota’s Arrowhead region, where temperatures could drop to about 34–36 degrees. No snow accumulation is expected, and Duluth shouldn’t see any flurries.
HRRR model forecast for 7 AM Friday shown below.
In Duluth, fog and showers will persist tonight, with rain likely ending Friday morning between 5 and 7 AM. Northwest winds will pick up overnight, with gusts of 20 to 40 mph, and these breezy conditions will last through about midday Friday.
Note: About a quarter inch of rain has fallen so far today in Duluth, with up to an additional 0.1 inches possible tonight.
The MRMS radar loop from Thursday, October 15, 2026, wraps up at 5:20 PM CT.
Northwest winds have been howling today, with gusts hitting 45–55 mph across the northern Plains. It won’t be quite as windy in the Northland, but things will pick up later tonight into Friday, with gusts ranging from 20 up to 45 mph.
RTMA wind gust from 4:45 PM Thursday, 10/15/2026.
HRRR model wind gust forecast valid 10 PM Thursday to 7 PM Friday.
A gale is expected to hit Lake Superior on Friday, with the biggest waves likely forming along the south shore in upper Michigan, from Houghton east to Marquette and Munising, where they could reach 10 to 15 feet. Smaller waves are anticipated along the North Shore in northeast Minnesota.
Wave forecast valid 2 PM CT Friday, October 16, 2026.
Strong cold air advection overnight into Friday will push 850mb temperatures down into the -3°C to -6°C range across the Northland. This shot of chilly air won’t last long, though, as a period of strong warm air advection arrives over the weekend, leading to a quick moderation in temperatures.
On Friday, temperatures in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin will mostly hover in the 40s but could linger in the mid to upper 30s in extreme northeast Minnesota if clouds linger throughout the day.
GOES-East water vapor loop from Thursday, October 15, 2026, spanning 11:15 AM to 5:05 PM CT.
Rainfall reports for October 15, 2026, updated as of 5 p.m.
Winter, WI: 0.65″
Shell Lake, WI: 0.55″
Trego Lake, WI: 0.50″
Hayward, WI: 0.45″
Clam Lake, WI: 0.42″
Poplar, WI: 0.40″
Odanah, WI: 0.40″
Danbury, WI: 0.39″
Spooner, WI: 0.38″
Glidden, WI: 0.35″
Bayfield, WI: 0.34″
Siren, WI: 0.33″
Minong, WI: 0.33″
Solon Springs, WI: 0.29″
Ashland, WI: 0.29″
Hermantown, MN: 0.29″
Maple, WI: 0.28″
French River, MN: 0.27″
Beaver Bay, MN: 0.26″
Grantsburg, WI: 0.26″
Pleasant Valley, MN: 0.25″
Winton, MN: 0.25″
Superior Airport: 0.24″
Babbitt, MN: 0.24″
Hibbing, MN: 0.24″
Duluth Sky Harbor Airport: 0.23″
Palmers, MN: 0.22″
Two Harbors, MN: 0.22″
Keewatin, MN: 0.22″
Duluth Airport: 0.21″
Hinckley, MN: 0.20″
Seagull Lake, MN: 0.20″
Grand Marais, MN: 0.20″
Ely, MN: 0.19″
Aurora, MN: 0.19″
Hill City, MN: 0.17″
Lutsen, MN: 0.17″
Esko, MN: 0.17″
Willow River, MN: 0.17″
Schroeder, MN: 0.16″
Aitkin, MN: 0.15″
Grand Rapids, MN: 0.15″
Kettle River, MN: 0.15″
Saginaw, MN: 0.14″
Nashwauk, MN: 0.14″
Meander, MN: 0.13″
Hog Creek, MN: 0.12″
Isabella, MN: 0.12″
Buyck, MN: 0.11″
Pine River, MN: 0.11″
Burnett, MN: 0.11″
Side Lake, MN: 0.10″
Meadowlands, MN: 0.10″
Cook, MN: 0.09″
Eveleth, MN: 0.09″
Moose Lake, MN: 0.09″
Orr, MN: 0.08″
Floodwood, MN: 0.07″
McGregor, MN: 0.06″
Bigfork, MN: 0.06″
Cass Lake, MN: 0.04″
Brainerd, MN: 0.02″
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