Issued at 6:55 PM CDT, Wednesday, July 4th, 2012
*Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 464*
Source: Storm Prediction Center
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for Northern and Central Minnesota…Northwest Wisconsin…and Lake Superior.
Counties in the Duluth area that are included in this watch are:
Koochiching, MN
Itasca, MN
Cass, MN
Crow Wing, MN
Aitkin, MN
Pine, MN
Carlton, MN
St. Louis, MN
Lake, MN
Cook, MN
Douglas, WI
Burnett, WI
Bayfield, WI
Ashland, WI
Iron, WI
Washburn, WI
Sawyer, WI
Price, WI
Some Cities included in the watch are: International Falls, MN…Grand Rapids, MN…Walker, MN…Brainerd, MN…Aitkin, MN…Pine City, MN…Hinckley, MN…Moose Lake, MN…Duluth, MN…Hibbing, MN…Ely, MN…Two Harbors, MN…Silver Bay, MN…and Grand Marais, MN. Superior, WI…Grantsburg, WI…Bayfield, WI…Ashland, WI…Hurley, WI…Spooner, WI…Hayward, WI…and Park Falls, WI.
Hazards:
2″ diameter hail
Thunderstorm wind gusts to 70 mph
Dangerous lightning
*Remember a severe thunderstorm watch means conditions are favorable for the development of severe weather in and close to the watch area. Make sure you have a way to be notified should severe weather approach your area.
Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms (A few strong-severe storms)
Thursday: Warm, but lowering humidity. Mostly dry.
Friday: Increased rain threat south areas…Mainly dry up north
High temperature report for July 3rd, 2012
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Duluth, MN: 90F
Ashland, WI: 91F
Sky Harbor, MN: 90F
Silver Bay, MN: 91F
Orr, MN: 90F
Bigfork, MN: 90F
Hinckley, MN: 90F
Superior, WI: 90F
Phillips, WI: 90F
7 NW of Brainerd, MN: 90F
Finland, MN: 90F
Weather Tidbits:
*High temperature of 90 degrees at the Duluth Airport on July 3rd was the 1st time at or above 90F since July 20th, 2011 (91 degrees)
*Duluth and International Falls, Minnesota both missed breaking their record high temperature by 3 degrees on July 3rd.
*Local Storm Report for July 4th, 2012*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
-1:45 PM CDT: 0.50″ HAIL. Littlefork, Minnesota (Koochiching County)
-2:03 PM CDT: THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE. Wirt, Minnesota (Itasca County) 3-4″ diameter trees down.
-2:10 PM CDT: 0.75″ HAIL. Talmoon, Minnesota (Itasca County)
-2:45 PM CDT: FUNNEL CLOUD. 6 NNE of Wirt, Minnesota (Itasca County) 2 funnel clouds over Bigfork.
-3:20 PM CDT: THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE. Hill City, Minnesota (Aitkin County) 8″ diameter branches down.
-3:46 PM CDT: 0.25″ HAIL. Kabetogama, Minnesota (St. Louis County)
-3:35 PM CDT: THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE. 15 SE of Ely, Minnesota (Lake County) Several 1.5″ diameter trees down.
-6:05 PM CDT: 0.50″ HAIL. 4 ENE of Brevik, Minnesota (Cass County)
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Low pressure of 1003mb was in Western Minnesota as of 6 PM with a warm front extending east of this low across Northcentral Minnesota into Northern Wisconsin while a cold front moves into Western Minnesota. It’s been an active 4th of July in Northern Minnesota with showers and thunderstorms and some severe weather with reports of wind damage and hail. The bulk of the activity was located along and north of Highway 2 Today, with mainly dry conditions for Eastcentral Minnesota and most of Northwest Wisconsin. Highs Today ranged from the 60s and 70s closer to Lake Superior with 80s and 90s elsewhere. Dewpoints were in the 50s and 60s near Lake Superior and mainly the 70s away from the lake. Afternoon heat indices topped out in the 95-108 degree range in Southern portions of our area. Winds Today were out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.
-Visible satellite image from 6:15 PM Today. That milky appearance is smoke, while the explosions in Northern Minnesota are where severe thunderstorms were occurring.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
A massive ridge of high pressure stretches from the Rockies to the Central-Southern Plains, Ohio Valley, and the Southern Great Lakes per RAP model analysis. An upper level trough was over the Northwest U.S. while a westerly flow aloft continued from the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest to the Northern Great Lakes per water vapor satellite imagery. Also of interest is the deep monsoon moisture plume lifting N/NE which is lifting slowly north-northeast across the Rockies and Western High Plains. 850mb temperatures as of 6 PM ranged from +26C in far Southwest Minnesota to +18C in far Northwest Minnesota to between +20 and +24C in the rest of Minnesota.
-Today’s 500mb map
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (July 4th)
Scattered showers and thunderstorms should continue to develop at times. Favorable instability and wind shear in place will support a severe weather risk with hail and strong winds being the main threats. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible thanks to the deep moisture in the air. An area of low pressure with it’s warm front and cold front will be passing through the Northland Tonight and is the reason why we may see some thunderstorms at times. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with lows in the 60s and 70s with some 50s possible closer to Lake Superior. Winds will be out of the south, east, or north at 5 to 15 mph.
-Tonight’s low temperature forecast
Thursday and Thursday Night (July 5th)
A cold front will settle south/east of our area during this period with a drier and more stable airmass moving into Northern Minnesota while it remains quite humid and unstable at least on Thursday in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period with very warm temperatures on Thursday with highs in the 80s and 90s. Lows Thursday Night will be in the 50s and 60s. Dewpoints will drop into the 50s from Highway 2 on north with 60s and 70s continuing in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota…Heat indices in that latter area could approach 100 degrees for a couple hours Thursday Afternoon. Winds will be out of the north, west, or east at 5 to 15 mph.
-Thursday’s high temperature forecast
-HPC’s rainfall forecast for Friday, ending at 7 PM.
Extended Forecast, Friday-Sunday (July 6th-8th)
Friday: A frontal boundary will be stalled out south of our area with high pressure to our north/northwest and low pressure off to our southwest. A strengthening baroclinic zone will develop over the Upper Midwest and that combined with deep moisture riding up and over the boundary to our south could lead to periods of rain and scattered thunderstorms, especially for Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Areas from the Iron Range, Arrowhead to the Borderland should stay dry the way it looks now. Highs on Friday will be in the 70s and 80s with 60s possible in cloudier/rainier locations. Lows Friday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.
-HPC’s rainfall forecast for Friday Night, after 7 PM. It still appears that the heaviest rain would be just south/southeast of Duluth-Superior on Friday. But this could change, so stay tuned!
Saturday and Sunday: The flow aloft will become northwesterly, this will push the massive heat west into the Rockies and Western U.S. A few showers might linger in Southern areas on Saturday, Northern Minnesota should be dry. Then, on Sunday a disturbance approaching from the north may go on to produce a few showers in the Northland. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will be in the 70s to lower 80s with lows Saturday Night in the 50s to around 60 degrees.
Long Range Forecast (July 9th-14th)
Looks like will be under a northwest flow during most of the long range period, temperatures are forecast to be near seasonal averages and there could be a few showers or thunderstorms on occasion.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
*Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 3:00 AM CDT Tonight*
.Tonight… Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. A few storms could be severe with large hail and strong winds. Variable cloudiness and humid. Low 60 to 65. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph, becoming north.
.Thursday… Becoming less humid. Warmer. Partly cloudy. High 84 to 89. Wind north at 10 to 15 mph.
.Thursday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 60 to 65. Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.
.Friday… Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 70 to 75. Chance of rain 30%.
.Friday Night… Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 55 to 60. Chance of rain 30%.
.Saturday… Partly sunny. High 73 to 78.
.Saturday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 55 to 60.
.Sunday… Partly sunny. Showers possible. High 75 to 80. Chance of rain 20%.
Normal temperatures for Tomorrow
High: 76
Low: 54
Sunrise Thursday: 5:21 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday: 9:05 PM CDT
Tim
Cuisinart Smart Stick Hand Blender
Leave a Reply