Issued at 3:57 PM CDT, Wednesday, July 11th, 2012
Tonight: Mild temperatures. A chance for showers/isolated t-storms mainly North areas.
Thursday: Warm, somewhat humid. A chance for showers/t-storms West-North areas.
Friday: Humid with scattered showers/thunderstorms
Note: The water temperature at the Duluth/Superior Harbor is in the balmy lower 70s Today.
-Lake Superior water temperatures as of July 11, 2012.
Severe weather stats for 2012
Source: Storm Prediction Center
*From January 1 through July 4th, 2012: 874 tornado reports in the U.S. Kansas continues to be on top with 143, followed by Texas at 98, and Kentucky with 69.
*The last big tornado outbreak in the U.S. happened on May 19th, 2012 with 19 tornado reports.
-Severe weather reports map for the U.S. (7/1-7/4) When looking at this map you can kinda see where the ridge has been=hot temps and sinking air, little to no thunderstorm activity. Disturbances going up and around the H5 ridge leads to periodic severe thunderstorm events from the Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, to the Upper Midwest, and through the Ohio Valley and Eastern U.S. (SPC)
Blue dots=wind damage reports
Green dots=large hail reports
red dot=tornado report
*Past July tornado reports dating back to the year 2000*
2000: 148
2001: 120
2002: 68
2003: 167
2004: 124
2005: 137
2006: 71
2007: 67
2008: 93
2009: 134
2010: 174
2011: 92
2012: 1 through the 4th.
*Taking a look at January-July tornado reports from 2000-2012*
2000: 833
2001: 813
2002: 535
2003: 1,218
2004: 1,086
2005: 811
2006: 790
2007: 865
2008: 1,394
2009: 1,107
2010: 1,168
2011: 1,680
2012: 874 through July 4th.
Tornado reports: 33 (red dots)
Damaging wind reports: 189 (blue dots)
Large hail reports: 167 (green dots)
A total of 389 severe weather reports so far this year in Minnesota.
Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota
A flood warning remains in effect for the Mississippi River near Aitkin affecting Aitkin County.
*At 4 PM Wednesday the stage was 15.5 feet
*Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
*Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
*The river will continue to fall to a stage of 15.3 feet by Tomorrow Morning.
*At 15.0 feet minor flooding of low lying areas occurs in Aitkin.
Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota
A flood warning remains in effect for the Mississippi River at Fort Ripley affecting Morrison and Crow Wing Counties.
*At 3 PM Wednesday the stage was 10.8 feet.
*Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
*Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
*The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by early Monday Afternoon.
*At 11.0 feet this will cause minor flooding of rural areas near Fort Ripley.
-NWS watch/warning map. Green=Flood Warning
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Warm temperatures continued Today with southerly winds on the backside of high pressure which moved into lower Michigan This Afternoon with low pressure to our west over the Dakotas. Highs were in the 80s with dewpoints still relatively comfortable in the 50s and lower 60s. Winds were from the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Skies were sunny to partly cloudy Today.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
A west-northwest flow prevailed in the Upper Midwest with upper level ridges over the Central-Southern Rockies and Plains and in the Southeast U.S. Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level disturbance tracking E-SE through the Northern Rockies and Saskatchewan. 850mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +18 to +20C across Minnesota.
-500mb for Today
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (July 11th)
Clear to partly cloudy skies can be expected. Isolated showers or thunderstorms might develop, mainly in Northern Minnesota. CAPE will decrease to <1000 j/kg during the night with Lifted Indices of 0 to -4C This Evening. With the main boundary sitting well to our west, the prospects for widespread and significant storms remain low in the Northland. Lows Tonight will be in the 50s and 60s with south or southwest winds at 10 to 15 mph.
-Tonight’s low temperature forecast
Thursday and Thursday Night (July 12th)
A cold front will move toward Western Minnesota during this period. A southerly flow will continue along and ahead of this boundary. Dewpoints will be slightly more uncomfortable on Thursday compared to Today with dp’s topping out in the 58-66 degree range…The higher values should be in Northcentral Minnesota. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period and there could be some showers or thunderstorms, mainly in Western-Northern parts of the area. The North Shore, Eastern Minnesota, and all of Northwest Wisconsin should remain dry for 1 more day. Highs on Thursday will mainly be in the 80s to around 90 degrees with lows Thursday Night mainly in the 60s. Winds will be out of the south, southwest, or southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
-Thursday’s high temperature forecast
Extended Forecast, Friday through Sunday (July 13th-15th)
A cold front, upper level disturbance, and upper level trough will affect our weather for Friday and Saturday. The airmass will become somewhat unstable both days with CAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg with Lifted Indices of -1 to -4C. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Friday and Saturday. The chance for severe weather looks fairly low at this time with very little wind shear to speak of, winds aloft are also weak. We could see pulse type storms, that may strengthen to near severe levels, especially Friday Afternoon/Evening during max heating. Sunday looks quieter at this time as the front and disturbance exits to our east.
High temperatures from Friday-Sunday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Friday Night and Saturday Night mainly in the 60s.
-All of the Northland is in a 5% chance for severe thunderstorms for Friday/Friday Night. (SPC)
Long Range Forecast (July 16th-21st)
Looks like we could be dealing with some showers or thunderstorms during most of this period. Shouldn’t rain every day, and when it does rain it shouldn’t be an all day affair, but the potential for convection does exist almost any day during this period. Temperatures are forecast to remain at or above average from the 16th-21st.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Mostly clear. Low 60 to 65. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Thursday… Warm and a bit humid. Partly to mostly sunny. High 82 to 87. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.
.Thursday Night… Variable cloudiness. Low 61 to 66. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
.Friday… Humid. Variable cloudiness. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 80 to 85. Chance of rain 30%.
.Friday Night… Showers or thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy. Low 60 to 65. Chance of rain 60%.
.Saturday… Variable cloudiness. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 75 to 80. Chance of rain 40%.
.Saturday… Showers or thunderstorms possible early. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 60 to 65. Chance of rain 30%.
.Sunday… Partly cloudy. High 80 to 85.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 76
Low: 55
Sunrise Thursday: 5:27 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday: 9:01 PM CDT
Thursday’s UV Index: 8.0/Medium-High
Tim
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