Issued at 4:26 PM CDT, Thursday, July 12th, 2012
Tonight: Scattered showers or thunderstorms. Small severe chance West-Northwest areas.
Friday: Quite humid with scattered storms. Slight severe risk Eastern Minnesota & NW Wisconsin.
Saturday: Warm, a bit humid. A few showers and thunderstorms.
-Seeing a bit of twist in the water vapor imagery in North Dakota and Southern Manitoba Today, this disturbance moves into MN and Western WI on Friday. Could mean some thunder boomers!
*Today is day number 21 this year with a high temperature of at least 80F.
*11/12 days this month has been at or above 80F.
*Flood Warning*
Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota
A flood warning remains in effect for the Mississippi River near Aitkin affecting Aitkin County.
*At 4 PM Thursday the stage was 15.0 feet.
*Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
*Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
*The river will continue to fall to a stage of 14.8 feet by Tomorrow Morning.
*At 15.0 feet minor flooding of low lying areas occurs in Aitkin.
*Flood Warning*
Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota
A flood warning remains in effect for the Mississippi River at Fort Ripley affecting Morrison and Crow Wing Counties.
*At 4 PM Thursday the stage was 10.5 feet.
*Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
*Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
*The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by early Sunday Morning.
*At 11.0 feet this will cause minor flooding of rural areas near Fort Ripley.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Another toasty day, but dewpoints still aren’t that high. Highs were in the 80s with 90 degrees at Sky Harbor, and a few other locations across the Northland inching toward 90 degrees late This Afternoon. Dewpoints were in the 50s and 60s with winds from the south, southwest, or southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Partly to mostly sunny skies occurred Today and there’s been a few showers at times in Western-Northern parts of the area.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper low/trough over Southern Manitoba and North Dakota with an upper level ridge across the Rockies, Southwest, U.S. and Plains, as well as over the Southeast U.S. per RAP model analysis. 850mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +18 to +22C in the Southern half of Minnesota to around +16C in far Northern Minnesota.
-500mb analysis for 7 AM Today
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (July 12th)
Upper level low/trough will reach the Red River Valley. Spokes of energy rotating around this system will bump into a moist and unstable airmass, the end result will be for a scattering of showers and thunderstorms in the Northland. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with lows generally in the 60s. South or east winds are forecast at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts This Evening.
Doesn’t look like a huge severe potential for Tonight with CAPE dropping off to <1000 j/kg with Lifted Indices around 0 to -2C. Little to no wind shear to speak of, and winds aloft are quite weak. A few severe storms will continue to develop in the Eastern Dakotas/Western Minnesota…And it's possible that this activity may affect Crow Wing, Cass, Itasca, and Koochiching Counties prior to Midnight, those areas stand the best chance for a strong or severe thunderstorm This Evening. Gusty winds and hail would be the main threats.
-Tonight’s low temperature forecast
Friday and Friday Night (July 13th)
A cold front along with an upper level low/upper trough will be moving through the region during this period. Computer models show the atmosphere becoming somewhat unstable (especially if we get some sunshine) CAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg with Lifted Indices from -2 to -4C are possible. Should get some pooling of higher dewpoints on Friday with 60s becoming more widespread in our area with PWATS of 1.00-1.30″.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop at times and there is a risk for a few Afternoon/Evening severe thunderstorms in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Wind shear will be lacking once again, and winds aloft look pretty weak, so it’ll probably be a set-up where storms pulse up in intensity and then collapse. When this happens, the risk of damaging wind gusts develop, and there may also be some hail in the stronger storms. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible due to the higher levels of moisture in the air, and the rather slow movement to the storms.
Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 50s and 60s. Winds will be from the south, west, or north at 10 to 15 mph.
-Storm Prediction Center has Eastern Minnesota and Western Wisconsin, including Duluth & Superior in a 15% (Slight Risk) for Severe Thunderstorms Friday and Friday Evening. A lesser chance for severe storms in Northern Minnesota, the North Shore, and Arrowhead.
-Friday’s high temperature forecast
-Tonight and Friday’s rainfall forecast from the HPC.
Extended Forecast, Saturday-Monday (July 14th-16th)
A weak cold front and upper level disturbance/trough will exit to our south/east on Saturday. Lingering moisture and instability will remain over our area and a risk for showers or thunderstorms will continue. Dry weather should return Saturday Night through Sunday Night. The cold front that moves through on Friday will lift back north as a warm front on Monday with a risk for a few showers or thunderstorms. High temperatures will be mainly in the 80s from Saturday through Monday, may even see some 90s on Monday. Low temperatures Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.
Long Range Forecast (July 17th-22nd)
A cold front will move south/east of our area next Tuesday (17th) High pressure will bring some relief in the warm temperatures during the middle of next week. Warm air attempts to move back in late next week/weekend. Showers or thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday (7/17), and then again between Friday-Sunday (7/20-7/22) Temperatures are forecast to be near to above normal through this period.
-500mb forecast for Sunday, July 15th, 2012 from the HPC
-500mb forecast for next Thursday, July 19th, 2012 from the HPC. Note the changes between Sunday and Thursday. Upper level high expands into more of a west-east fashion later next week with the main jet stream settling south a bit from Canada.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers or isolated thunderstorms possible mainly after 10 PM. Low 60 to 65. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph, becoming east at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
.Friday… More humid. Variable cloudiness. Scattered showers or thunderstorms possible. High 80 to 85. Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
.Friday Night… Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 60 to 65. Wind becoming north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
.Saturday… Partly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 80 to 85. Chance of rain 30%.
.Saturday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 60 to 65.
.Sunday… Partly cloudy. High 83 to 88.
.Sunday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 60 to 65.
.Monday… Partly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 82 to 87. Chance of rain 20%.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 76
Low: 55
Sunrise Friday: 5:28 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 9:00 PM CDT
Friday’s UV Index: 8.0/Medium-High
Tim
Minnesota Storm Chasers Ash Grey T-Shirt
Leave a Reply