/Issued 3:31 PM CDT, Friday, September 27, 2013/
-Future radar per 18z NAM-HIRES computer model.
10 AM Saturday – should be raining by mid-late Morning from International Falls to Brainerd and Aitkin, east to Pine City and Hinckley. Rain should be nearing the Twin Ports after 10 AM. Looks dry before Noon in Northwest Wisconsin.
1 PM Saturday – Rain should be affecting the entire Northland with a dry slot edging ENE out of Western Minnesota. The yellow colors represent where heavier downpours capable of producing gusty winds will be located.
7 PM Saturday: Rain should be done by early Tomorrow Evening, although it should be noted that a few of the computer models are a little slower than this particular one. Should the slower solutions verify, then rain could linger til around 7-8 PM Tomorrow in Northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead of Minnesota.
Fall Foliage report #2
Source: MNDNR and travelwisconsin.com
Note: Data as of September 27, 2013
-Portions of the North Shore of Lake Superior and Arrowhead of Minnesota have 25-75% color change.
-Duluth, Two Harbors, and Cloquet have 10-25% color change.
-Parts of Northern Minnesota, including Bigfork, International Falls, Grand Rapids, Deer River, Floodwood, Hibbing, and Moose Lake have anywhere from 25-75% color change.
-Douglas and Bayfield County: 15-35% color change.
-The rest of NW Wisconsin including the Counties of Ashland, Iron, Burnett, Washburn, Sawyer, and Price have 25-55% color change.
Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
A cold front extended from Northwest Minnesota to Southwest Nebraska late This Afternoon with low pressure of 996-1000mb over Southern/Eastern Colorado. A strong low level jet with warm/moist advection occurring ahead of this system led to scattered showers in Northern/Eastern Minnesota and far Northwest Wisconsin Today with even a few isolated thunderstorms across Northern Minnesota. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies were common Today with mild high temperatures in the 60s and 70s. Winds were from the south or east at 5 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts.
Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (September 27)
A mild night ahead as southerly winds continue along with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s which is 10-20 degrees warmer than average. Scattered showers could develop at times mainly in the Western/Northern part of the area. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible.
Saturday and Saturday Night (September 28)
An area of low pressure will deepen from 1000mb to around 991mb as it moves out of Western Minnesota and into Central Ontario during this period. A strong cold front attached to this low will push NE through the Northland on Saturday.
A robust low level jet of 40-50+ knots is forecast to develop along and ahead of the cold front on Saturday with good lift taking place out ahead of the deepening surface/upper level system. Rain and showers will affect the entire Northland with precipitation moving from SW-NE. Rain should come to an end from west-east by late Saturday Afternoon or Evening. Could see some strong wind gusts in the main band of rain which accompanies the cold front on Saturday, winds at around 5,000 feet will be blowing upwards of 50 knots on Saturday and some of that could mix down to the surface in the heavier rain cores.
High temperatures on Saturday will range from the 60s and 70s in Northwest Wisconsin to the 50s and 60s in Northern Minnesota. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 30s and 40s. South or east winds will switch to the west at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Total rainfall amounts of 0.10-0.50″ are still expected on Saturday in all of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. (Source, 18z 4km High-Res NAM)
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Sunday through Tuesday (September 29-October 1)
A very pleasant stretch of weather lies ahead during this period with dry conditions and mild temperatures. High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s from Sunday through Tuesday with lows Sunday Night and Monday Night in the 40s and 50s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
Next Thursday-Saturday (3-5) will be a time frame to keep an eye on as the long range computer models have been showing a fairly strong storm system affecting the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. The timing, track, and intensity of this possible storm is far from certain since it’s about a week away so stay tuned to later updates. Gusty winds and rain will be possible in the Northland sometime between next Thursday-Saturday based on the latest model guidance. And just for fun the 12z GFS model from Today switches the rain to snow in most of the Northland next Friday, but at the moment this solution appears to be the outliar. Near to above average temperatures are expected on October 2nd with near to below average temperatures from the 3rd-7th.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Mild. Partly to mostly cloudy. Isolated showers possible This Evening. Low 57 to 62. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
.Saturday… Partial sunshine possible early. Rain developing after 10 AM and ending around 4 PM. High 62 to 67. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph becoming southwest during the Afternoon. Higher wind gusts are possible.
.Saturday Night… Breezy. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Wind west to southwest at 15 to 25 mph.
.Sunday… Partly cloudy. High 65 to 70.
.Sunday Night… Mostly clear. Low 45 to 50.
.Monday… Partly cloudy. High 68 to 73.
.Monday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.
.Tuesday… Partly cloudy. High 68 to 73.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Saturday: 7:04 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday: 6:54 PM CDT