/Issued 3:46 PM CDT, Wednesday, October 30, 2013/
*Having fun with MS paint Today.
*Image below is from the unisys.com site and shows the water vapor satellite image from 3:30 PM Today.
*Disturbance over Central South Dakota and an upper trough covering the Rockies. A very moist and mild SW flow extends from North Texas to the Central Great Lakes with t’storms firing up from Iowa and Illinois, south to Texas. The deep moisture shown as brighter white colors on this map is and will remain south/east of Minnesota Tonight so the chances for significant precipitation are quite low here in Minnesota. Will still get some rain though at times Tonight, might even be a stray t’storm or two.
Halloween climate data for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
Note: Temperatures listed below are daytime highs.
Climate period: 1948-2012.
Warmest: 74 degrees in 1950.
Coldest: 25 degrees in 1951.
Other notables: 27 degrees in 1996; 66 degrees in 1999; and 60 degrees in 2000.
Note: Last year on Halloween, the high temperature was 49 degrees and the low was 22 degrees.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A broad area of low pressure averaging 1006-1010mb covered the Central Plains Today. Moisture flowing north ahead of this system led to widespread low clouds, fog, and drizzle in the Northland Today with scattered rain showers also occurring at times. Highs were in the upper 30s to middle 40s with light winds.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (October 30)
Low pressure will move into Southwest Wisconsin by daybreak. Mostly cloudy skies will continue Tonight with drizzle, fog, and some rain showers at times. There is a little bit of elevated instability over Eastern Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin with CAPE of around 200 j/kg Tonight so this could lead to an isolated thunderstorm or two in those areas. Low temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s with winds out of the south, east, or west at 5 to 15 mph.
*Rainfall totals Tonight won’t be impressive in the Northland with amounts generally ranging from a trace to around 0.25″ in a few spots. (Source, 18z – 1 PM HRRR model run)
Thursday and Thursday Night (October 31)
Low pressure will deepen to around 990-993mb during the day Thursday as it lifts northeast out of Southwest/Central Wisconsin. This low deepens further Thursday Night with pressures dropping to between 980-984mb as it reaches Eastern Canada. Rain chances have decreased considerably over the Northland Tomorrow, still can’t rule out some patchy drizzle or showers here and there, but I think most of us will be dry. There won’t be much clearing though with a considerable amount of cloudiness remaining over the area. Highs will be in the 40s with lows generally in the 30s. Winds will be out of the west or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Friday through Sunday (November 1-3)
Flow aloft turns NW once again Friday and Saturday before becoming more westerly on Sunday. Spotty rain showers could occur at times Friday and Saturday with mainly dry weather expected on Sunday. Highs will mainly be in the 40s during this period with lows Friday Night in the 30s and in the 20s and 30s Saturday Night.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
(November 4-9)
Could see some precipitation between the 4th-6th, at the moment it does look too warm for any snow, so rain would be the main P-TYPE based on latest model data. Near average temperatures are forecast through this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Fog and drizzle. Scattered showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 43. Wind east around 12 mph, becoming west Overnight.
.Halloween… Considerable cloudiness. Patchy drizzle possible. High 43 to 48. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Thursday Night… Mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.
.Friday… Considerable cloudiness. Showers possible. High 40 to 45.
.Friday Night… Mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35.
.Saturday… Considerable cloudiness. High 40 to 45.
.Saturday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 25 to 30.
.Sunday… Partly sunny. High 40 to 45.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 45
Low: 30
Sunrise Thursday: 7:50 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday: 5:54 PM CDT
Tim
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