/Issued 3:26 PM CST, Thursday, January 16, 2014/
*I don’t have much confidence in the track of Friday Night’s clipper. In fact I was quite hesitant to even make a snowfall accumulation map for Tomorrow Night’s event, but here’s what I’m thinking at the moment…This will likely be adjusted by this time Tomorrow.
Yes the 1st half of January has been frigid across Minnesota.
January 1-15, 2014 climate data for select cities in Minnesota
Duluth:
Average temperature: 2.1F
Departure: -8.1 degrees
Total precipitation: 0.42″
Departure: -0.10″
Total snowfall: 3.3″
Departure: -6.8″
Days with snow (0.1″ or greater accumulation) 4
International Falls:
Average temperature: -3.2F
Departure: -7.4 degrees
Total precipitation: 0.47″
Departure: +0.13″
Total snowfall: 9.3″
Departure: +1.4″
Twin Cities:
Average temperature: 8.6F
Departure: -6.9 degrees
Total precipitation: 0.44″
Departure: -0.02″
Total snowfall: 5.2″
Departure: -0.8″
St. Cloud:
Average temperature: 4.4F
Departure: -7.1 degrees
Total precipitation: 0.41″
Departure: +0.06″
Total snowfall: 3.2″
Departure: -1.3″
*January 1-15, 2014 temperature departure map. Most of the Northland saw temperature deficits of 9 to 12 degrees during the 1st half of the month. (Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center)
*January 1-15, 2014 precipitation departure map. (Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center)
A few more snowfall reports from January 15-16, 2014
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, MN
Cornucopia, WI (Bayfield County) 6.0″
5 NW of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County) 3.7″ Official NWS total ending at 12 PM Today
5 NW of Two Harbors, MN (Lake County) 2.5″
2 NE of Lutsen, MN (Cook County) 10.0″
Note: Other snowfall reports from Today can be found on this post from earlier Today: http://timsweatherblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/january-16-2014-morning-weather-update.html
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Weather Tidbits
Source: Paul Douglas/St. Cloud Times; Greg Carbin – NOAA.
*Last Monday January 6 was the 55th coldest day nationwide since 1900.
*58 days since 1900 where the U.S. average temperature was colder than 18 degrees.
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Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Low pressure of 998mb has moved into Western Upper Michigan as of 3 PM with mostly cloudy skies, gusty winds, colder temperatures, and some light snow lingering across the Northland late This Afternoon. Temperatures were in the single digits and lower teens with northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph. Areas of blowing and drifting snow have been common in our area Today due to the gusty winds.
Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (January 16)
Low pressure will move into Northern Michigan by dawn. Light snow and flurries will gradually end from north to south Tonight with additional accumulations ranging from a trace up to 2″ with heavier snow showers possible along the South Shore of Lake Superior where another 2-4″ of accumulation is possible Tonight from Bayfield County, east to Iron County.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with lows in the single digits, teens, and 20s below in Northern Minnesota and in the single digits below to single digits above zero in Northwest Wisconsin.
Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts which will continue to lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow Tonight. Wind chill values will fall into 15 below to 30 below range.
Friday and Friday Night (January 17)
**Confidence: High on Friday. Low to medium Friday Night**
Partly cloudy to sunny skies can be expected Tomorrow with highs in the single digits and teens. Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
A fairly strong clipper is expected to dive southeast out of Northwest Canada and into the Upper Midwest by Saturday Morning. Note: The exact track of this system remains uncertain This Afternoon and this will determine how far east the heaviest snow will get.
The NAM remains consistent with it’s prior runs bringing a swath of significant snow farther east into most of the Northland. On the other hand, the UK and CANADIAN models are further west with the heaviest swath of snow affecting Western, Central, and Southern Minnesota with just light snow amounts for the Northland. The GFS is sort of in between with the heaviest snow affecting Western-Southern areas in the Northland with lighter snowfall amounts elsewhere. Note: The newest GFS model run 18z is much weaker with this clipper and actually keeps most of the snow west/south of the Northland. Difficult forecast ahead.
The main time period for snow if this system does hit us would be from late Friday Night, most likely after Midnight and through Saturday Morning.
Stay tuned!
Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tomorrow Night with lows in the single digits and teens below to single digits and teens above zero. Winds will shift to the south at 5 to 10 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
Saturday through Monday (January 18-20)
Saturday Morning will find an area of low pressure dropping southeast out of the Upper Midwest and into the Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Snow will end from NW-SE with mainly dry weather for Saturday Afternoon.
A baroclinic zone will setup across the region from Saturday Night into Monday as arctic air attempts to push south out of Central Canada from Sunday into Monday. Weak disturbances may track along this baroclinic zone and this could lead to some light snow and flurries at times from Saturday Night through Monday.
High temperatures on Saturday will be in the teens and 20s. Highs on Sunday will range from around 10 above to the low 30s. Highs on Monday will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero. Lows Saturday Night will be in the single digits and teens. Lows Sunday Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(January 21-26)
Northwest flow aloft continues with no end in sight. Temperatures for the most part will be colder than average with a more important blast of icy cold arctic air possibly moving into the Upper Midwest toward the 25th-26th. Minor snow events could occur at times, but no significant snow systems are expected through the rest of the month.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Breezy with some blowing snow. Light snow and flurries ending before Midnight. Additional accumulations less than 1″. Total event accumulations of 2-4″. Partly to mostly cloudy. Cold. Low 2 below to 7 below. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible. Wind chill values ranging from 15 below to around 30 below.
.Friday… Partly cloudy. High 6 to 11. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday Night… Increasing cloudiness. Light snow or flurries possible after Midnight. Low 0 to 5 below. Wind becoming south around 10 mph.
.Saturday… Light snow or flurries possible during the Morning. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 13 to 18.
.Saturday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 5 to 10.
.Sunday… Considerable cloudiness. High 25 to 30.
.Sunday Night… Mostly cloudy. Low 10 to 15.
.Monday… Mostly cloudy. High 10 to 15 with falling temperatures.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 19
Low: 1
Sunrise Friday: 7:48 AM CST
Sunset Friday: 4:50 PM CST
Tim
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