/Issued 3:13 PM CST, Friday, January 17, 2014/
What goes up must come down. In this case it’s the persistent ridge out west helping to carve out and keep a stubborn trough and northwest flow in place across the Upper Midwest. The 3 images from left to right are the EUROPEAN, GFS, and CANADIAN computer models (12z run from Today) Orange and red colors=warm. Blues=cold.
*Here’s another map that shows what I was talking about from the previous map. This is the 500mb forecast valid Monday, January 20, 2014. PV on the map stands for Polar Vortex. (Source, Weather Prediction Center)
*Fast forward to 1 week from Today, Friday, January 24, 2014 and yes you guessed it. The pattern doesn’t really change, except now we see a new Polar Vortex take shape over Hudson Bay Canada – marked PV on the map. So I guess this would be Polar Vortex version 3? (Source, Weather Prediction Center)
*Snowfall report from January 16-17, 2014*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Note: Higher totals in bold.
1 E of Maple, WI (Douglas County) 6.5″
4 N of Poplar, WI (Douglas County) 3.0″
Gile, WI (Iron County) 13.5″
8 S of Ashland, WI (Ashland County) 7.5″
5 S of Herbster, WI (Bayfield County) 16.0″
Herbster, WI (Bayfield County) 3.0″
Hawthorne, WI (Douglas County) 5.0″
3 W of Phillips, WI (Price County) 4.5″
Cornucopia, WI (Bayfield County) 12.0″
Maple, WI (Douglas County) 8.0″
Snow depth report as of 6 AM CST Friday, January 17, 2014
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Duluth, MN: 19″
International Falls, MN: 19″
7 NW of Brainerd, MN: 15″
12 N of Isle, MN: 14″
3 E of Wright, MN: 13″
Cass Lake, MN: 15″
12 N of Grand Rapids, MN: 17″
Embarrass, MN: 17″
Grand Portage, MN: 19″
Kabetogama, MN: 20″
3 E of Orr, MN: 18″
Finland, MN: 28″
Ashland, WI: 26″
3 S of Ashland, WI: 30″
Gurney, WI: 27″
9 N of Bayfield, WI: 32″
4 W of Clam Lake, WI: 23″
Gordon, WI: 18″
Sarona, WI: 17″
Solon Springs, WI: 15″
Washburn, WI (Highway DPT) 40″
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*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Location:
Parts of East Central Minnesota.
Timing:
Midnight Tonight until 12 PM CST Saturday.
Counties included in the advisory:
Cass MN
Crow Wing MN
Aitkin MN
Some cities included in the advisory:
Cass Lake…Walker…Pine River…Leader…Brainerd…Cross Lake…Garrison…Pine Center…Hill City…Aitkin…McGregor…and McGrath.
Discussion:
Snow develops toward Midnight with snow continuing into Saturday Morning before ending.
Total snowfall accumulations:
Generally 3″ to as much as 6″ with the least amount of snow expected to be in Aitkin County.
Impacts:
Snow covered and slippery roads and reduced visibility. Use caution if you have travel plans late Tonight and Saturday Morning. Allow extra time to reach your destination.
Note: The winter weather advisory for Koochiching and Northern Itasca Counties in Northern Minnesota has been cancelled.
———————————————–
Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
A nice winter day with tons of sunshine although temperatures were on the chilly side but hey it’s mid January so what do you expect around here? Highs were in the single digits to the low and mid teens with light winds. The only part of the area that had different weather was along the South Shore of Lake Superior where lake effect snow (heavy at times) developed last night and continued through the Morning hours before tapering off This Afternoon.
Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (January 17)
Clipper Tonight continues to shift more and more to the west with each new model run. What this means is less snow for most of the Northland.
Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies Tonight with some snow mainly over Western-Southern areas…Or along and west of a line from International Falls to Shell Lake. The Southwest portion of the Northland from Cass Lake to Garrison and points west of that line stand the greatest chance for a more significant amount of snow Tonight. The Iron Range, Arrowhead, North Shore, and most of Northwest Wisconsin should remain dry Tonight. Lows will be in the single digits below to teens above zero with a few spots possibly dipping into the teens below in Northeast Minnesota. Winds will turn to the south/east at 5 to 15 mph.
-Here’s my snowfall accumulation forecast through Saturday Morning.
Saturday and Saturday Night (January 18)
Low pressure should be over Southern Minnesota Tomorrow Morning and will head into the Ohio Valley region by Tomorrow Evening. Snow over Western-Southern parts of the Northland will come to an end Tomorrow Morning. The rest of Saturday looks dry in our area.
Saturday Night will feature a cold front sinking south out of Central Canada. Snow showers and flurries could sprout up across Northern Minnesota as that boundary heads south, this shouldn’t be a big deal though.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period with temperatures in the teens and 20s. Winds will shift to the west at 10 to 20 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Sunday through Tuesday (January 19-21)
Colder air moves into the area late this weekend and early next week as 850mb temperatures drop to around -20C. NW flow continues so a round of snow showers and flurries could occur every now and then, but again this shouldn’t be a big deal.
Highs on Sunday will be in the teens and 20s with falling temperatures from north to south. Highs on Monday will range from around 10 below to the single digits above zero. Highs on Tuesday will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero. Lows Sunday Night and Monday Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(January 22-27)
Pattern remains the same with a ridge west of the Rockies and a persistent trough east of the Rockies. Below average temperatures will be the result with periods of bitter cold air probably spilling south into the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes on occasion, although I don’t think these shots of extreme cold will stick around for very long, overall though the trend is for colder than average temperatures through the rest of January.
No significant snow events either as long as we stay in a NW flow, and by the looks of it I don’t see this pattern breaking down looking out to 2 weeks. We will however be visited by the occasional Clipper, Screamer, or Mauler system that drops out of Canada and if those systems take a favorable track, then we would get the occasional minor snowfall event.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Clear This Evening. Becoming partly to mostly cloudy late. Flurries or snow showers possible toward dawn. Low 0 to 5 below. Light wind becoming east to southeast around 10 mph Overnight.
.Saturday… Flurries or snow showers possible during the Morning. Accumulations of 1″ or less possible. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 17 to 22. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph during the Morning becoming southwest during the Afternoon.
.Saturday Night… Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 10 to 15. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.
.Sunday… Considerable cloudiness. Flurries possible. High 22 to 27.
.Sunday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Colder. Low 0 to 5 below.
.Monday… Colder. Partly sunny. High 5 to 10.
.Monday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 12 below to 17 below.
.Tuesday… Partly sunny. High 0 to 5.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 19
Low: 1
Sunrise Saturday: 7:47 AM CST
Sunset Saturday: 4:51 PM CST
Tim
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