/Issued 3:24 PM CST, Friday, January 24, 2014/
*Expect windy conditions to develop Tonight. This is the 850mb wind forecast per 18z GFS model valid for the hours after 12 AM Tonight. The yellow and red colors indicate wind speeds of 40-50 knots up at around 5,000 feet. Some of this wind will mix down to the surface with gusts of 30-40+ mph across much of Minnesota and Western Wisconsin Tonight. A ground blizzard is expected over parts of Western Minnesota Tonight with areas of blowing and drifting snow occurring in open country over the rest of Minnesota.
Snow depth report for January 24, 2014
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Duluth, MN: 19″
International Falls, MN: 22″
7 NW of Brainerd, MN: 18″
12 N of Isle, MN: 16″
3 E of Wright, MN: 14″
Cass Lake, MN: 18″
Cook, MN: 22″
Embarrass, MN: 19″
3 E of Orr, MN: 18″
Finland, MN: 28″
Ashland, WI: 23″
Gurney, WI: 29″
Upson, WI: 23″
9 N of Bayfield, WI: 32″
Sarona, WI: 19″
Solon Springs, WI: 19″
Weather Tidbits:
*More than 2,700 daily record COLD high and low temperatures across the U.S. from January 1-22. Source, NOAA.
*The average January temperature thru the 23rd at the Duluth Airport: 2.7F which is 7.5 degrees colder than average.
*3rd coldest winter season so far at both International Falls and Duluth, Minnesota. The average temperature from December 1-January 23 at International Falls: -3.7F; and at Duluth: 3.8F. Source, NWS.
—————————–
*WIND CHILL ADVISORY*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
A wind chill advisory has been issued for parts of Northeast Minnesota and a small part of Northwest Wisconsin.
Timing:
Midnight Tonight until Noon CST Saturday.
Counties included in the advisory:
Koochiching MN
Itasca MN
Northern Cass MN
Northern Aitkin MN
Carlton MN
St. Louis MN
Lake MN
Cook MN
Douglas WI
Some cities included in the advisory:
International Falls…Grand Rapids…Cass Lake…Hill City…Moose Lake…Cloquet…Duluth…Hibbing…Ely…Orr…Two Harbors…Grand Marais…Superior…and Solon Springs.
Wind chill values:
25 below to 40 below. Under these conditions exposed flesh can experience frost bite in 15 to 30 minutes.
**A wind chill advisory means that very cold air and strong winds will combine to generate low wind chills. This will result in frost bite and lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken**
—————————–
Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
As expected the Northland got a brief break from the arctic air Today as a strong area of low pressure passed well off to our north through Northern Ontario. Attached to this low is a warm front and cold front. The warm front continued to march east/southeast across our area This Afternoon with the cold front just starting to approach Northwest Minnesota late This Afternoon. 2 rounds of snow affected the Northland Today, one moved through early This Morning, the other one is ongoing as of 3 PM as it pushes southeast across our area. Snowfall amounts have generally ranged from a dusting to around 2″. High temperatures Today were in the 20s and lower 30s with west or southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.
Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (January 24)
A cold front will track through the Northland Tonight. Arctic air and strong northwest winds will develop after this front passes. Snow showers and flurries will continue at times especially before Midnight with accumulations generally under 1″. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with lows in the single digits and teens below with a few locales in Northern Minnesota possibly dipping as low as the 20s below. Winds will shift to the northwest Tonight with wind speeds increasing to between 15 and 25 mph with gusts of 30-40+ mph quite possible. Note: Areas of blowing and drifting snow could develop during the night and may continue at least into Saturday Morning.
*The area highlighted in light blue on this map is under a wind chill advisory for late Tonight through Noon Saturday. (Source, NWS hazards map)
Saturday and Saturday Night (January 25)
Our area will be on the SW edge of this next batch of arctic air which moves in late Tonight and continues Tomorrow before pushing to the north/east Tomorrow Night. H85 temperatures will range from -20 to -30C in our area on Saturday with moderating 850mb temperatures occurring Tomorrow Night.
High temperatures on Saturday will range from around 10 below to the single digits above zero with lows Tomorrow Night ranging from the teens below to single digits above zero.
Partly cloudy to sunny skies can be expected on Saturday with partly to mostly cloudy skies ahead for Saturday Night. A new clipper system will be moving into the Northern Plains Tomorrow Night and that system will bring some snow to the Northland especially after Midnight.
Winds will be out of the northwest Tomorrow at 10 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph. Winds will gradually shift to the south/east Tomorrow Night at 5 to 15 mph.
*Here’s the 1st shot of arctic air that moves in late Tonight and continues through Saturday. -20 to -36C 850mb temperatures covers much of Central Canada, Upper Midwest, and the Central-Northern Great Lakes per 12z NAM.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Sunday through Tuesday (January 26-28)
A strong area of low pressure averaging 991-995mb will be moving east/southeast across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday. This system will likely bring some snow to Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Sunday with generally light accumulations expected – probably in the 1-3″ range the way it looks now.
Of more importance will be the next batch of arctic air which arrives Sunday Night and continues through Tuesday. This next arctic blast looks awfully similar to the one we had earlier this month, the only difference may be the wind speeds, possibly a little less intense this time around versus what we saw earlier this month. Either way it’s going to be dangerously cold with ***life-threatening wind chills*** developing Sunday Night and continuing through Tuesday.
High temperatures on Sunday will range from the single digits below to teens above zero. Lows Sunday Night will be in the teens and 20s below. Highs on Monday will range from around 5 below to 15 below. Lows Monday Night will be in teens, 20s, and 30s below. Highs on Tuesday will be in the single digits below zero.
***Wind chill values (feels like temperature) of 25 below to 55 below from late Sunday Night through Tuesday***
*And here comes the next arctic blast which will stick around a few days. This is the 850mb temperature forecast for Sunday Evening per 12z NAM. Another blob of -30C or lower 850mb temperatures moving south/east out of Manitoba and Western Ontario.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(January 29-February 3)
Below average temperatures continue this period with reinforcing shots of arctic air spilling south out of Canada. Looks pretty dry too with maybe a light coating of snow possible sometime between the 29th-30th.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
*WIND CHILL ADVISORY*
Timing: 12 AM Tonight until 12 PM CST Saturday.
.Tonight… Turning windy and colder. Scattered snow showers and flurries during the Evening. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 5 below to 10 below. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph becoming northwest at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts possible. Areas of blowing and drifting snow possible late. Wind chill values 25 below to 40 below.
.Saturday… Windy and cold. Mostly sunny. High 0 to 5. Wind northwest at 15 to 30 mph. Wind chill values 25 below to 40 below through Noon.
.Saturday Night… Increasing cloudiness. Light snow and flurries possible after Midnight. Low 0 to 5 below. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph becoming southeast late.
.Sunday… Light snow and flurries. Mostly cloudy. High 5 to 10.
.Sunday Night… Breezy and colder. Partly to mostly cloudy. Flurries possible early. Low 20 below to 25 below with dangerous wind chills.
.Monday… Frigid. Mostly sunny. High 6 below to 11 below with dangerous wind chills.
.Monday Night… Bitterly cold. Mostly clear. Low 21 below to 26 below with dangerous wind chills.
.Tuesday… Frigid. Mostly sunny. High 3 below to 8 below with dangerous wind chills.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 19
Low: 1
Sunrise Saturday: 7:41 AM CST
Sunset Saturday: 5:01 PM CST
Tim
Leave a Reply