/Issued 2:16 PM CST, Monday, February 10, 2014/
-Something we haven’t seen much at all this winter is for a trough (cooler air) out west while a ridge (warmer air) covers the Plains, Great Lakes, and Eastern U.S. Well the long range models have latched onto a dramatic pattern change which takes place next week, actually it starts to occur this week, but will really change next week the way it looks now.
-Here’s the latest analog temperature probability forecast centered on February 21, 2014. Source, Climate Prediction Center.
Red colors=Warmer than average temperatures.
Blue colors=Colder than average temperatures.
*Today marks the 56th day so far this winter with a sub-zero low temperature at Duluth, Minnesota. For those wondering this beats the winter of 1981-82 which had 50 days and the winter of 1995-96 which had 45 days.
*Were making history! The number of consecutive days with a sub-zero low temperature is up to 22. This ties with 1963 (51 years ago) and 1936 (78 years ago) Another below 0 night Tonight will mean that 2014 will hold the all-time record with 23 days in a row with a low temperature below 0 degrees.
*Who turned the snow off in Duluth?
Look at this contrast in snowfall totals this winter
December 1-January 14: 41.2″ of snow.
January 15-February 10: 9.6″ of snow.
2014 National Tornado Summit is going on Today.
I’m following this event on twitter by using the hashtag #NTS2014
Here are a few tweets from Today’s event:
*2013 had the lowest tornado count since 1953. 2013’s total was 2 standard deviations below normal which comes off 2011 which was 2 standard deviations above normal @GCarbin
*Top tornado day in 2013 occurred on November 17 @Kocodamonlane
*995 days since the Joplin, Missouri tornado – recovery is still underway @IndTorn8o
*Tornado outbreak on November 17, 2013 300% above tornado climatology @Jeff_Piotrowski
*2013 tornado map per Storm Prediction Center.
Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Arctic high pressure averaging 1034mb is over the Eastern Dakotas This Afternoon. Mostly sunny skies were common over all but Northeast Minnesota where skies were cloudier. Still very cold Today with highs only in the single digits. Winds were out of the west or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.
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*WIND CHILL ADVISORY*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, MN
A wind chill advisory has been issued for parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.
Timing:
3 AM until 9 AM CST Tuesday.
Counties included in the advisory:
St. Louis MN
Lake MN
Cook MN
Carlton MN
Pine MN
Douglas WI
Burnett WI
Washburn WI
Some cities included in the advisory:
Duluth
Hibbing
Ely
Crane Lake
Two Harbors
Silver Bay
Finland
Isabella
Grand Marais
Cloquet
Hinckley
Superior
Solon Springs
Siren
Grantsburg
Minong
Shell Lake
Spooner
Trego
Wind chill values:
25 below to 40 below. Frostbite can occur on exposed skin within 10 to 30 minutes under these conditions.
**A wind chill advisory means that very cold air and strong winds will combine to generate low wind chills. This will result in frostbite and lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken**
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*WIND CHILL ADVISORY*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
A wind chill advisory has been issued for parts of Northern Minnesota.
Timing:
12 AM Tonight until 9 AM CST Tuesday.
Counties included in the advisory:
Koochiching MN
Itasca MN
Cass MN
Crow Wing MN
Aitkin MN
Some cities included in the advisory:
International Falls
Bigfork
Grand Rapids
Walker
Leader
Brainerd
Hill City
McGregor
Aitkin
Wind chill values:
25 below to 40 below. Frostbite can occur on exposed skin within 10 to 30 minutes under these conditions.
*Area in light blue on this map is under a wind chill advisory. Source, NWS hazards map.
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Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (February 10)
High pressure will remain in control of our weather which will result in clear to partly cloudy skies. Bitterly cold temperatures will continue for 1 more night as lows fall into the single digits, teens, and 20s below with a few spots bottoming out in the negative 30s. Winds will be out of the west at 5 to 15 mph.
Tuesday and Tuesday Night (February 11)
Clouds will be on the increase (eventually) from west-east on Tuesday as low pressure approaches from the northwest. This low combined with a shot of warm air advection and a 40-50 knot southwest low level jet will lead to a period of snow across the Northland from late Tuesday Afternoon through late Tuesday Night. The short duration of the snow will limit accumulations with most locations only picking up around 1″ of snow, but a few spots might get up to 2″.
Highs Tomorrow will be in the single digits and teens with lows Tomorrow Night ranging from around 10 below to 10 above. Winds will be out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.
*Surface map valid for Tuesday Evening. Should see an area of snow push through the Northland Tomorrow Evening thanks to that low (L on the map) which is forecast to be over Southeast Manitoba early Tomorrow Evening. Source, NDFD/WPC.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Wednesday through Friday (February 12-14)
A few snow flurries could linger into Wednesday Morning but this day should generally be dry with highs in the single digits and teens.
A stronger clipper moves into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest from Wednesday Night into Thursday. Note: The computer models disagree a bit as to the track of this system with the NAM bringing the low through Northern Minnesota while the other models are further south – more through Central Minnesota. Snow totals would be much less in the Twin Ports if that northern solution verifies. If the low dips more to the south, then snow totals would likely be higher in the Twin Ports. Right now I’m thinking will see a range of 1-4″ of snow throughout the Northland on Thursday with the area receiving the highest amounts still up in the air.
Thursday’s system moves off to our east on Friday with mainly dry weather returning to the area.
High temps on Thursday will be in the teens and 20s, might even get into the 30s over Southern areas depending on the track of the surface low. Thursday Night’s minimum temperatures will be in the teens below to single digits above zero. Highs on Friday will be in the single digits and teens.
*Surface map valid for Thursday AM. The next system to affect us is forecast to be along the North Dakota – Minnesota state line Thursday Morning. Looks like this low will track almost due east from it’s Thursday AM location. Source, Weather Prediction Center.
*Weather Prediction Center has Northern Minnesota in a slight risk category (blue area on the map) for at least 4″ of snow for the late Wednesday Night/Thursday time period. Stay tuned to later updates as this risk area may shift further south during the next 1-2 days.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(February 15-20)
Near to above average temperatures are forecast during this period. Some snow is possible on Saturday as a system drops SE out of the Northern Plains although at the moment it looks like most of that snow would remain west/south of the Northland, but stay tuned as the track could change.
Another system could bring some snow or a wintry mix of precipitation to our area from Sunday-early Tuesday (16th-18)
Finally there are signs in both the long range GFS and EUROPEAN models for a pattern change as a trough may begin to take shape over the Western U.S. which would lead to a warmer pattern east of that trough. This pattern change also opens up the possibility for a stronger storm to come out of the Rockies sometime between mid next week/weekend (19th-23rd time frame)
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
Event: *WIND CHILL ADVISORY*
Timing: 3 AM to 9 AM CST Tuesday.
.Tonight… Very cold. Mostly clear. Low 12 below to 17 below. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph. Dangerous wind chill values from 25 below to 40 below.
.Tuesday… Partly cloudy with more clouds arriving later in the day. High 5 to 10. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Dangerous wind chill values from 25 below to 40 below during the Morning.
.Tuesday Night… Light snow. Total snowfall accumulations of around 1″. Mostly cloudy. Low 0 to 5. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming west to northwest toward dawn.
.Wednesday… Partly cloudy. High 12 to 17.
.Wednesday Night… Clouding up. Snow possible late. Low 0 to 5.
.Thursday… Snow possible. High 18 to 23.
.Thursday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 0 to 5.
.Friday… Mostly sunny. High 8 to 13.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 23
Low: 4
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:19 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday: 5:27 PM CST
Tim
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